What satellite images show about the movements of the Russian army on the border with Ukraine

The latest satellite images provided by the US space technology company Maxar show that large-scale Russian military activity continues near the borders of Ukrainedespite recent Russian government claims of de-escalation and withdrawal.

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Taken in mid-February, they show that Ukraine remains surrounded on three sides, on its borders with Russia and Belarus with artillery equipment and troop concentrations.

Russian troop activity

Of particular concern is the presence of a new field hospital, some distance to the rear of the Osipovichi training area, in northwestern Belarus.

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While this could be a legitimate element of any large-scale exercise, it could also be an indication of battle casualties expected from an impending conflict.

Field hospital, Belarus

Other troop concentrations and activities are considerably closer to Ukraine’s borders.

On February 15, a military pontoon bridge over the Pripyat River was photographed. It is less than 6 km from the Belarusian border with Ukraine.

Floating bridge, Belarus.

Analysts at London-based McKenzie Intelligence Services have highlighted the large staging area on the right bank of the river as an indicator of possible intent to move a large number of vehicles.

Some reports have suggested that the pontoon may have been removed.

Artillery

Another image is of self-propelled artillery, or large-caliber guns mounted on a tank chassis, arranged in Brestsky, which is about 50 km from the border.

A newly arrived unit of 20 anti-tank attack helicopters was photographed at Zyabrovka airfield, 30 km from the border.

Russian war planes, Belarus.

McKenzie Intelligence analysts say there are 12 probable Russian Hokum helicopters and five probable Hind or Mi-28 Havoc helicopters.

It is important to remember that Russia’s current military presence of around 30,000 troops in Belarus, while alarming for both Ukraine and NATO, is part of scheduled joint exercises that are due to end on February 20.

So a key test of Moscow’s intentions will come after that date, when satellite images will reveal whether most Russian forces have stayed or gone.

What these images do not tell us

There is nothing in these images that definitively proves that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.

Russia continues to insist that this is not its intention and that any such suggestion is part of Western propaganda.

But NATO’s chief defense officers believe Russia now has enough forces around Ukraine to execute an invasion if President Putin gives the order.

The scale, magnitude and configuration of Russia’s deployment near Ukraine’s borders is unprecedented, for example with air defense units brought in from thousands of miles away from eastern Siberia.

Under Putin’s leadership, Russia’s armed forces have undergone a dramatic transformation since the dark days of the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Two things have happened that have made Russia’s armed forces a force to behold.

Map Ukraine-Russia

First of all, huge amounts of state money have been invested in the modernization and improvement of troops, equipment, weapons, cyber and logistics, from the latest versions of cyber attacks to the reorganization of combat units in Compact “Tactical Battalion Groups” of around 800 soldiers supported by tanks, artillery, and other weapons.

Second, Russian commanders and planners have spent the last seven years gaining valuable combat experience in Syria and eastern Ukraine. Their weapons have been tested on the battlefield, and Russian commanders have learned from past mistakes.

On the whole, Western analysts believe that Moscow could, if it chose, maintain a sizable and threatening military presence around Ukraine’s borders for weeks, if not months, to come.

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Source: Elcomercio