Does Putin plan to use the atomic bomb or is it pure bluff? This is what analysts think

Really Vladimir Putin plans to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine? The escalation without return seems quite far from the reality of the conflict, but its threats are part of the logic of the recent tactics of the Russian president.

SIGHT: Putin puts his nuclear ‘deterrent forces’ on high alert after NATO announcement

Western analysts and experts consulted this Sunday by AFP, believe that Putin’s statements about putting the nuclear deterrent on alert is pure bluffbut at the same time a dangerous game and a breakout forward showing his frustration at the Ukrainian military resistance.

A real false threat

The Russian president said he had ordered “put deterrence forces on special combat alert”triggering strong protests in the West.

But the experts point out that part of the nuclear arsenals, both in Russia like in the NATOthey are de facto permanently ready for immediate use.

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“They can be activated in 10 minutes”Marc Finaud, an expert at the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP), told AFP. “These are warheads already placed on missiles (on land or underwater) or they are bombs that are already on board” of attack aircraft.

In an article recently published in the “Bulletin of Atomic Scientists”, the experts Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda state for their part that nearly 1,600 nuclear warheads are deployed and ready for use.

SIGHT: “This illegal invasion is the sole responsibility of Putin, but NATO created the conditions for it to happen”

“Since the Russian strategic forces are always on alert, the real question is whether they have deployed more submarines or armed the bombers”Hans Kristensen said on Twitter on Sunday.

Ukrainian Territorial Defense fighters test the automatic grenade launcher taken from a destroyed Russian infantry mobility vehicle in Kharkiv on February 27, 2022. (Sergei BOBOK/AFP)

double down

Analysts evoke in unison a flight forward caused by the military situation.

“There is Russian frustration with the Ukrainian resistance”said David Khalfa, a researcher at the Jean Jaurès Foundation in Paris.

As a last resort, the danger for Putin is not entering into a high-intensity confrontation “but into a logic of urban guerrilla warfarewith a high probability of casualties on the side of the Russian soldiers.”

Eliot Cohen, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, also believes that Moscow had underestimated Ukraine’s ability to resist.

“The fact that they don’t have air superiority is pretty telling.”he told AFP. “We started to see the weakness on the battlefield … they were not able to occupy a city and hold it.”

Nuclear warheads in the world. (AFP).

political objective

In this context, and while Western aid and donations flow into Ukraine, Putin’s statements appear to be a desire to undermine the solidarity of his opponents.

Putin “He is a gambler, someone who takes risks. He tries to test us psychologically, ”says Eliot Cohen.

“The psychological aspect is capital”, confirms David Khalfa, underlining Putin’s attempt to “dissuade Westerners from going further with the economic sanctions” that have been raining down on Russia for a few days.

According to the researcher, “everyone joins the Ukrainian flag and there is this desire to drive a wedge between the alliance governments and Western public opinion.”

But, he adds, “in the opinion of everyone who knew Putin, he isolated himself, locked in a paranoid logic. It’s a bit worrying, it’s impossible to read his strategy.”

A Russian Yars RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile system rolls through Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in central Moscow on May 9, 2019. (Alejandro NEMENOV/AFP)

Russian principle of deterrence

The true intentions of the Russian head of state are all the more elusive as these statements contradict the Russian doctrine of Russian deterrence.

In June 2020, Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda recall, Putin had approved the “basic principles”, with four cases that justified the use of nuclear weapons: launching ballistic missiles against Russia or an ally, use of a nuclear weapon by an adversary, attack on a nuclear weapons site or aggression that endangers “the very existence of the State”. None of that happens today.

As for its international position, Russia had signed in January, with the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council (United States, China, France and Great Britain) a document in which it recognized that “you could not win a nuclear war” and insisted that “as long as (those weapons) exist, they must serve defensive, deterrent and war prevention purposes”.

The statements of Putin they testify to “the ambiguity, if not the hypocrisy, of this type of statement”, laments Marc Finaud.

But even if the apocalypse is not in the script of what happens in Ukraine, “there is always the risk of an error or failure, of misinterpretation, or even manipulation,” the expert recalls.

And that “today is a very high risk”.

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Source: Elcomercio