The paths that open before Putin after a month of war in Ukraine

doVladimir Putin can win the war Ukraine? The Russian president faces a more difficult situation than he imagined when he ordered an invasion of the former Soviet republic a month ago, but he is determined to redouble efforts to achieve his ends, analysts say.

SIGHT: The gigantic economic cost that Russia must pay to finance the war

A victory involving a total occupation of Ukraine would also confront Putin to other explosive challenges, say the experts, who also mention a possible diplomatic way out of the warwith territorial conquests for Russia.

– What goals of war?

These have not changed since the beginning of the invasion, on February 24: obtain the “neutrality” and “demilitarization” of Ukrainethat is, prevent this country from joining NATO.

• 4 reasons why the Ukrainian city of Mariupol is so important to Russia
• What is it that moves Putin? Western agents trying to understand what goes through the head of the Russian leader
• What are hypersonic missiles and why their use by Russia in Ukraine “is a signal” from Moscow to the West

The Kremlin is no longer necessarily betting on the overthrow of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who has become a symbol of resistance to the invasion.

“The initial plan, which probably consisted of a war lightning that allowed the rapid capture of kyiv and the fall of the Ukrainian government did not work, ”says Marie Dumoulin, a specialist at the European Council on International Relations (ECFR), a think tank on European affairs.

The Ukrainian resistance complicated the plans of Putinaccustomed to quick or overwhelming military successes, as in the cases of the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the intervention in support of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad.

“Putin moves even starting from that [la guerra] it will not last, it will end up being imposed by its own military mass, regardless of the resistance on the ground”, says Frédéric Charillon, professor of International Relations at the French University of Clermont Auvergne and author of “Guerres d’influence” (Wars of influence) .

But faced with difficulties in advancing on the ground and harsh international sanctions against Russia, Putin “is increasingly heading towards a war of destruction,” he adds.

“The issue is not so much what Putin intends to obtain, but in what way and at what price”, estimates Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“It will take time and will cause more drama, but he is convinced that he has no options and that he is invested with a historic mission”, consisting of restoring the areas of Russian influence, he added.

– win the war at what price?

If the Ukrainian army collapses under military pressure in the east, Russia could take control of a country of 40 million inhabitants, with an area larger than Spain, which will serve as a buffer zone against NATO.

But in that case, Russia runs the risk of facing an insurrectionary situation. “You will have to maintain control of the terrain. And maintaining dominance in an insurrection is very difficult,” says Charillon, recalling that the United States had to deal with this type of situation in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There are those who fear that Russia will launch a military escalation, with chemical weapons or attacks against Western convoys of military or humanitarian aid.

“Most likely Putin redouble its efforts and adopt a strategy of war dirty to increase the human cost and force the Ukrainians to capitulate”, considers Dumoulin.

– Are there exit doors? –

If the situation drags on or remains uncertain, Putin it can save face by extracting political concessions and territorial gains from kyiv.

“The key to Putin it is strength, pressure and victory. He cannot go back without having obtained some trophies,” argues Abbas Gallyamov, a Russian independent analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter.

Putin “needs an agreement on the neutrality of Ukraine. But that is obviously insufficient. He also wants recognition [de la anexión] of Crimea and [la independencia de] the pro-Russian separatist republics of Lugansk and Donetsk”, he adds.

And yes Ukraine refuses such concessions, Russia could still boast conquests in the east, with the essential goal of establishing territorial continuity between the Donbas region, the port of Mariupol on the Sea of ​​Azov, and southern Crimea.

In that case, “it cannot be excluded that the Russians will try to continue the offensive to Odessa, to control the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast,” Dumoulin estimates.

– ¿Putin threatened? –

If the war continues “with no prospect of a quick solution”, tensions could worsen to the point of causing “a breakdown of the power system in the Kremlin”, according to a note from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

Some analysts even believe that important players in that system, such as certain oligarchs and heads of the security services, could be tempted to stop Putinor even to overthrow it.

“At the moment, I don’t see any such signs in the Russian elite. Even if one part is upset with that waris not willing to rise up against her”, considers, on the contrary, Stanovaya.

• Putin says Western sanctions are like a ‘declaration of war’
• Ukraine shows on social networks the missile attack on a helicopter: “This is how the Russian occupiers die!” | VIDEO
• Visa and Mastercard suspend operations in Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine
• The strange act of Vladimir Putin between jokes, flowers and stewardesses in full offensive in Ukraine
• British journalists recorded the moment they were fired upon by Russian troops in Ukraine
• War correspondent in Ukraine: “No one imagined that this would happen with such brutality”

Source: Elcomercio

Deshawn