“When Russia says that it will withdraw from kyiv, it is not out of good will, but because it has covered more than it can”

Russia He assures that he has decided to “drastically reduce” the attacks on the Ukrainian cities of kyiv and Chernigov, in northern Ukraine.

The move, which is viewed with skepticism by Ukraine and its Western allies, comes after five weeks of war in which several Russian units have suffered heavy losses, forcing them to return to Russia and Belarus to reorganize.

Ukrainian counter-attacks have pushed Russian troops back and, according to the British MoD, Russia is having trouble sustaining operations in a number of areas, so it has apparently decided to focus on the east, in the Donbas region, and abandon the target. to surround and control kyiv, the capital.

But what is behind this change in strategy?

This is his analysis on the matter Frank GardnerBBC security correspondent.

Relatives mourn the death of a Ukrainian soldier in combat. (GETTY IMAGES).

We must not be naive. When Russia says that it will withdraw from kyiv, it is not because of a grand gesture of goodwill, but because took in more than you can. He has been trying to fight this war on three axes: the south, around Mariupol; the east, in Donbas; and the north, around kyiv and Chernigov. And it’s overloaded.

They can continue to have peace talks, but ultimately this will be decided by the facts on the ground. AND The facts are that the Russians now control about two-thirds of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast., from the eastern border with Russia to just before Odessa in the west. It is almost in a position to control Ukraine’s maritime trade.

Sensible from a military point of view, the Russians are concentrating on the main effort to annihilate the Ukrainian regular army in the east and around the donbas.

If that time comes, they will say “we have what we want, we are ready to talk about peace now” and try to make Ukraine look very obstructive by not accepting Moscow’s terms. Or they could use the victory as a base, turn their attention to kyiv and try to take it.

kyiv is not safe yet.

The Ukrainians have been able to keep the Russian forces out of kyiv, although they are beginning to suffer from the artillery, but in the meantime, cities like Chernigov and Kharkiv are being completely destroyed by artillery, rocket and missile fire. Unfortunately, there will still be many more civilian deaths in this war.

GETTY IMAGES.

The Ukrainian negotiators said that they do not want to give up an inch of Ukrainian territory, and this is one of the reasons why these peace talks have not worked so far, because the Russian and Ukrainian positions are still quite far apart.

Ukraine can agree to be a neutral country without nuclear weapons and not to be part of NATO. But still wants to join the European Union, wants to look to the Westand the Russian president, Vladimir Putin does not want a Western-leaning government in kyiv on his border. He wants at least a neutral one between West and East, although he would prefer a pro-Kremlin one.

It is very likely to arise international pressure, particularly from NATO and the US, on President Volodymyr Zelensky to make a commitment to stop the fight.

And it makes no sense for Russia to end this war because it still has more than 100,000 Russian soldiers sitting on the edge of the Ukrainian border, waiting to attack.

How is the security of Ukraine guaranteed without putting NATO forces there, which are unacceptable to Russia? There is a very difficult dilemma there.

Trostianets, site of fierce Russian battle and occupation, retaken by Ukrainian forces. (CHRIS MCGRATH/GETTY IMAGES)

If there were someone else in power in the Kremlin, less aggressive than Vladimir Putin, Ukraine would not feel so threatened. And Putin has no intention of giving up power. Even if he relinquished the title of president from him, he would still be in power.

French King Louis XIV said “l’Etat, c’est moi” (“I am the state”). There is no one in Moscow who can challenge Putin in terms of power, not the oligarchs, not the Federal Security Service, not the Defense Ministry. He is all-powerful.

But Putin must be very upset with how this has gone so far, because he got out of his plans. I think he was led astray by his intelligence chiefs, who told him this would be much easier.

A leaked report in the Kremlin-controlled Komsomolskaya Pravda showed that there are about 10,000 dead Russian soldiers (they said they were hacked and it was not a genuine report). The Pentagon, which has been fairly conservative in its estimates, put Russian deaths at around 7,000 a week ago. Ukraine says there are 16,000.

The exact numbers are probably somewhere in the middle. They are almost as many soldiers as the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan (1979-1989), a very high casualty rate.

GETTY IMAGES.

The Kremlin said Wednesday that Mariupol should surrender. They want to complete their control of that land route between Crimea and Donbas. Mariupol stood in the way of that, and was heavily defended. There is probably still some resistance, but the Russian forces have already reached most of the city.

What’s left of her isn’t worth having, it’s just a shattered shell..

The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, stated days ago that Putin’s plan is to divide Ukraine in two, as happened with Korea, although it would not be a limit as clear as that straight line that separates North Korea from South Korea. South.

Most likely it is an uneven and weak line disputed according to where the troops are, in southern and southeastern Ukraine, a patch in the east around Donbas, and possibly some stretches in the north.

But that will be unacceptable to the Ukrainian government. They fought hard, they pushed the Russians back in some places, they are not going to want to give up territory and that is why, unfortunately, Russia will continue to supply weapons to their troops, NATO will continue to supply weapons to the Ukrainians and this fight will continue.

Source: Elcomercio