Finland and Sweden closer to joining NATO

Finland Y Sweden They are approaching the moment of truth to present a possible candidacy to join NATO, which could materialize in the coming days, at least on the Finnish side.

LOOK: A Russian spy plane violated Swedish airspace

Less than three months after the invasion of Ukraine, the two Nordic countries have approached the transatlantic military alliance in search of a security umbrella, especially from the United States, in the face of the Russian threat.

“It is 100% certain that Finland will be a candidate, and quite likely that it will be a member before the end of the year,” Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told AFP.

In Finland and Sweden, the war launched by Moscow in the Ukraine has tilted public opinion in these countries, hitherto divided, towards NATO.

According to a Yle public television poll released on Monday, 76% of Finns are in favor of joining NATO (a record) against just 20-30% in recent years.

After weeks of intense internal and international consultations, the signs of an imminent announcement are multiplying in both countries.

In Sweden, the ruling Social Democratic party, whose green light would ensure a clear parliamentary majority for accession, indicated that it will announce its decision on Sunday, that is, a dozen days earlier than expected.

There are more doubts in Stockholm than in Helsinki, says Elisabeth Braw, an expert in defense of the Scandinavian countries at the American Enterprise Institute, but Sweden is going to apply and “very likely” to do so with its neighbor.

Taken by surprise by the speed of Finland, Sweden, used to weighing pros and cons for a long time, has an interest in not being left behind, also taking advantage of the bad moment of the Russian army on the Ukrainian front.

LOOK: Finland says it will decide ‘very soon’ on possible NATO membership

– “The timing is perfect” –

“Before, the Swedish Social Democrats always said: +we will think about it when Finland joins+. But because they thought Finland would never join,” says Braw.

“From a risk standpoint, the timing is perfect. Russia is so busy in other places that it will be very difficult for it to replicate or respond militarily”, says this expert.

In Finland, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö is due to reveal his “personal” position on the issue on Thursday. And that of Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democratic Party is expected on Saturday at the latest.

According to the Iltalehti daily, a key committee bringing together the two leaders of the Finnish executive and ministers is due to meet on Sunday to make its decision.

Requested by AFP, the Finnish government did not offer comment, saying the committee’s meeting dates were confidential.

A war justified by Vladimir Putin as a response to NATO’s desire to expand eastward would therefore have the direct consequence of pushing two additional European countries into the NATO fold.

Finland’s accession would also double NATO’s land border with Russia, bringing it to 2,600 kilometres.

The multiple warnings from Moscow in recent weeks about the “political and military” consequences of an accession, such as sending reinforcements to the Baltic Sea, including nuclear ones, have only reinforced the determination of Helsinki and Stockholm.

LOOK: NATO says it would welcome Sweden and Finland ‘with open arms’

– Powerful armies –

On the Swedish island of Gotland, a strategic position in the middle of the Baltic Sea, the reserve forces of the National Guard have been activated for a month.

Next week, in addition, there are important annual military exercises in Finland and Sweden.

Finland has 12,000 professional soldiers, but has 21,000 recruits per year.

In times of war, the Finnish Armed Forces can mobilize up to 280,000 troops.

Finland has a powerful artillery and about sixty fighter planes, a not insignificant force for a country of 5.5 million inhabitants.

LOOK: Putin’s neighboring countries are already preparing to repel a possible Russian offensive

After the end of the Cold War, Sweden reduced military investment and cut troops, but its Armed Forces are modern, meet NATO standards, and have a significant military industry.

Although they were not members until now, the two countries had already traveled part of the way to leave behind their historical neutrality and move closer to the alliance, at least militarily.

“We are seeing a major shift in opinion and politically, but militarily it is not the case, mostly because they are already very close to NATO,” says Shaw. “They are going to marry NATO after having lived in concubinage,” she adds.

Source: Elcomercio

Deshawn