The assassination of a senior Iranian military officer: Will the situation between Israel and Iran worsen?

On Sunday the 22nd two people on a motorcycle approached Sayyad Khodaei, colonel of the Revolutionary Guard Iranian, when he was parked in his car in front of his house. Five shots ended the life of the man who joined the Quds Force -”responsible for foreign operations” of the Armed Forces. Iranians – during an intervention in Syria.

In response, the president of IranEbrahim RaisiHe promised revenge.

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The situation has become complicated since “The New York Times” published that, according to a source, “Israel informed the United States” that the authorship of the murder corresponded to them.

The EFE agency tells:

“The newspaper explains that the Israelis assured that the assassination is ‘a warning to Iran to stop the operations of a covert group within the Quds force, known as Unit 840’ and whose existence has not been recognized by Tehran.”.

And adds:

“The ‘NYT’ points out that Unit 840 is in charge of kidnapping and murdering foreigners around the world, including Israeli civilians and officials, according to the Israeli government, military and intelligence officials.”.

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How does this complicate the already frayed relationship between Israel and Iran? “It does not affect her because there are no relationships between the two”. The analyst Ariel Segal is convincing: it is unlikely that this event will end in a warlike confrontation.

“Because before Iran attacks Israel, it would first have to prove that what happened is its responsibility. Without evidence you will not have the support of the world”.

And the words of the “NYT” would not be enough.

“Remember that the last leader of the Revolutionary Guards was not assassinated by Israel, but by USA during the management of donald Trump. Now with Joe Biden on the White Houseone would have the natural suspicion that it was Israel, but they have no way to prove it”.

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war is not the way

For Segal, there is another big reason why Iran will not attack Israel: it is flirting with the United States to redirect the negotiations on the nuclear agreement, the solution to end the embargoes that weigh on them.

In fact, recently the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian maintained that “Joe Biden should lift economic sanctions and abandon his predecessor’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign, donald trumpin order to reactivate the nuclear agreement”.

Indeed, the 2015 plan for Barack Obama to prevent Iran from developing nuclear technology, it was deactivated in 2018 by donald trump.

“Attacking Israel could set back the chance of a dealSegal notes.

The matter is not minor. It is necessary to remember that Israel was never satisfied with the rapprochement between USA and Iran. The position makes sense if one takes into account the words of the former Iranian de facto leader, the Ayatollah Ruhollah KhomeinYo: “Israel is not a country, but a terrorist base”.

Segal notes: “Until today, from time to time they say that Israel is a cancer in the Middle East, a cancer that must be removed. Obviously, for Israel, the objectives of the Government of Iran are a danger to its existence, it is even more so because it is developing nuclear reactors and it is suspected that they are working to place nuclear warheads on long-range missiles. For Israel it is about its security”.

But what is going to happen, notes the specialist, is that the conflict between the two countries will continue in the same way as always: indirectly.

“I believe that, for their response, they will use their troops deployed in Syria or even Hezbollah, which is located in northern Lebanon, to launch missiles at Israel.”.

“In this way they will create a conventional mini-war, one of those that occur with some frequency, as if to warn the Government of Israel that they will not sit idly by”.

Source: Elcomercio

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