As Moscow strikes the Donbass, can we “envisage a victory for the Russians by the end of the summer”?

Three months, 96 days, 2,300 hours… It’s hard to imagine that Ukraine is still resisting the Russian invader since February 24 and the launch of Moscow’s “special military operation”. Hard to believe that a country of 45 million inhabitants has stood up, for nearly thirteen weeks, to a behemoth three times its demography [et qui possède un budget militaire dix fois plus conséquent]. However, this war in Ukraine is a good illustration of the story of the earthen pot facing the iron pot. But for how long ? In recent days the Russian noose has tightened around kyiv, more precisely around the strategic region of Donbass, and Moscow has stepped up the pace of its air attacks.

“After three months of conflict, one thing is clear: the balance of power is indeed almost balanced,” says General Vincent Desportes, author of Aim for the top: To succeed, become a strategist (Ed. Denoel). For this former army soldier, “in terms of combat neither of the two countries” is however “superior enough to the other to achieve real breakthroughs”. The war in Ukraine would then have become a “nibbling war” during which everyone fights back, small victory after small victory, without being able to claim victory.

“Vladimir Putin underestimated all the layers of this conflict”

Without forgetting that “Vladimir Putin underestimated all the layers of this conflict”, still accuses General Vincent Desportes. First, the Ukrainian people whom he took for “little Russians”, then Volodymyr Zelensky whom he saw as a “clown” then Europe, which he thought was “a bunch of soft nations”. And “despising your enemy is surely one of the worst strategic mistakes in wartime”, concludes the man who is also a professor of strategy at HEC and SciencesPo.

This is why Russia quickly found itself in difficulty, had to face unparalleled Ukrainian resistance and has struggled for more than three months to claim victory. Seeing his strategy slipping, Putin therefore changed his tune. Its objective, after taking the port city of Mariupol, became that of conquering the whole of Donbass. Russian troops are surely advancing there and pounding the towns of this region located in the east of Ukraine. But probably not fast enough. This is surely the reason why for several days Vladimir Putin’s armed forces have been trying to break through directly from the sky, multiplying air attacks.

The battle in the air, the key to Russian victory?

According to Michel Goya, however, it is not in the air that Moscow’s victory over kyiv will be found. “One of the great surprises of this war is precisely the weakness of the Russian air force,” says the former officer in the army’s marine troops. The Kremlin fleet would indeed be less modern and efficient than that envisaged by the international community or anticipated by the Ukrainian forces. “The Russians have lost a lot of planes since the beginning of the conflict and are forced, to avoid breakage, to fly very low, which makes their attacks much less effective”, further specifies Michel Goya.

On the other hand, it is indeed these planes which allowed the Russians to take possession of the city of Popasna located east of the Donbass and, according to the former soldier, it is perhaps there the Russians will meet victory: “ this city is located on the heights and offers a strategic vision of all the regions of eastern Ukraine, so coveted by Vladimir Putin. Thanks to this positioning, the Russian army would then be able to encircle a city like Severodonetsk, “one of the last pockets of resistance in the Donbass, sheltering a sixth of the Ukrainian army”, according to the historian. “And if controlling the Donbass means winning the war then it is possible to envisage a victory for the Russians by the end of the summer”, he concludes.

On Tuesday, the governor of the Lugansk region announced that Russian forces now controlled “part” of Severodonetsk, which they had been shelling for weeks. “The situation is ultra-complicated”, indicated on Telegram Serguiï Gaïdaï. the governor, however, clarified that the Russians “could not advance freely”, with Ukrainian fighters “still remaining” in the city.

A war in Ukraine made up of “attacks and retreats”

“A war ends either by total destruction or by negotiations”, cowards for his part Vincent Desportes. The professor of strategy at Sciences Po and HEC thus joins Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who affirmed at the end of March, during an interview granted to Ukrainian television, that the war would not end on the “field of battle but on that of negotiations”.

Only, in the game of negotiations, everyone must find his account. “At this stage, Vladimir Putin has not gained enough territory to be able to justify a conflict of such magnitude. For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky must regain ground to have material for compromise, ”says Vincent Desportes. If the two countries know that it takes mutual consent rather than joint destruction, negotiating does not necessarily mean an end to the fighting. “As a reminder, during the 1973 negotiations between the United States and Vietnam, the Americans bombed Hanoi more than reason,” recalls the general. In the end, this war in Ukraine is made up of “attacks and setbacks” which make any prediction difficult… but which thumb their noses at the theory of the strongest.