Elections Colombia 2022 | Yanhaas Survey for RCN News: Gustavo Petro 45%, Rodolfo Hernández 35%

The last presidential poll for the second round next Sunday, June 19, in Colombia shows this saturday to Gustavo Petro in the first place of intention to vote with 45%, while Rodolfo Hernandez reaches 35%. The survey by the firm Yanhaas for Noticias RCN presents the alternative of the blank vote with a percentage of 13% and a margin of error of 3.2%.

Gustavo Petro It rose three points compared to the previous survey of said pollster, which at the beginning of the month placed it with a 42% intention to vote. Rodolfo Hernandez He dropped six points, since in the previous measurement of Yanhaas he had 41%.

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The blank vote remains at the same percentage as in the previous study and the people who do not know or do not respond increased by 2%.

The yanhaas surveywhich has a sample of 1,234 people, records by region that in Antioquia and the Rodolfo Hernández Coffee Region it went from 49 to 42%, while Gustavo Petro it went from 29 to 34%.

In the case of Bogotá, the poll maintains Gustavo Petro with 49% (same percentage as at the beginning of June) Already Rodolfo Hernandez a downward variation of one point can be seen, going from 31 to 30 percent of voting intention.

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In the Caribbean region, Petro went from 47% to 55% and Hernandez It went from 36% to 26%.

In the central-eastern zone, Hernández leads but went from 56% to 50% and Petro, for his part, went from 30% to 31%. In this region of the poll, the blank vote went from 12% to 14% and the “don’t know, no answer” vote rose from 2% to 5%.

In the Pacific region, Petro went from 65% to 64% and Rodolfo Hernandez it went from 24% to 23%. The blank vote there rose from 7% to 10%.

Regarding the age ranges of the respondents, the most striking variation occurs in people between 35 and 44 years old, where Petro went from 39% to 48%. Hernández, for his part, went from 38% to 34%.

Yanhass survey fact sheet

Natural or legal person that carried it out: YanHaas SA, registered with the National Electoral Council.

● Commissioned and financed by: RCN Radio, RCN Television, La República.

● Topic or topics to which it refers: Public opinion and voting intentions for the 2022 presidential elections. Evaluation of the country, Government, 2022 presidential elections, conjunctural issues.

● Population universe: People 18 years of age and older, who express interest in voting in the next presidential elections 2022, in the five geographic regions of study: Antioquia-Coffee Region, Caribbean, Bogotá, Central-East and Pacific, excluding people residing in abroad and in the departments of Amazonas, Arauca, Guainía, Guaviare, San Andrés and Providencia, Vaupés and Vichada.

● Target Group: Women and men of legal age, who express interest in voting in the upcoming 2022 presidential elections, in the regions covered by the study.

● Sampling system: A random sampling stratified by region, size of the municipality, according to the Colombian electoral census was implemented. The selection contemplated four stages: the first, selection of 60 municipalities in their strata, the second, selection of 325 sample points (neighborhood-block) in the selected municipalities, the third, selection of households (on average 3.8) per neighborhood-block ; and the fourth, selection of a person in the homes visited.

● Sampling frame: The selection of the sample was made up of different stages: The first, the sampling frame corresponds to the list of municipalities; the second, the sampling frame was the list of neighborhoods characterized by their SES and a starting point block within each of the chosen neighborhoods; the third, the selected block is swept house by house and the fourth, the members of the house who met the specific characteristics required by the study are listed and a person is randomly selected.

● Sample size: 1,234 surveys distributed in 60 municipalities in the country.

● Observed margin of error: The margin of error for 95% confidence is 3.2% for proportions greater than 49%.

● Weighting: Sample weighted by region, age and size of the municipality according to population projections for 2021 according to DANE.

● Data collection technique: Face-to-face surveys in households with a structured questionnaire and physical card. ● Date of fieldwork: From June 5 to 10, 2022

● Number of enumerators: 60

● Validation methods: Review of 100% of the surveys carried out and direct supervision of 21% of the surveys.

● Characters I inquire about: See attached questionnaire.

● Area / Coverage: 60 municipalities in 5 regions were selected.

Source: Elcomercio

Ronald Payne

I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.