60% of Latin American countries chose left or center-left governments in the last elections

Last June 19, Colombia took an unprecedented turn. In a close second electoral round, Gustavo Petro he became the first left-wing president of the South American country. That day, in addition, Colombia joined the more than a dozen states in Latin America that, in the last elections, chose leftist or center-left governments.

With Petro’s triumphs in Colombia, Gabriel Boric in Chile and peter castle In Peru, there are 12 countries in the region that voted for left or center-left options. The figure represents 60% of all Latin American states, six times more than 20 years ago, when Bolivia and Cuba were the only countries that were not governed by the right.

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The number, however, could grow even more after the presidential elections in Brazil, which will take place in October 2022. In the electoral polls, the left-wing former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a wide advantage over his main rival, the current right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro. If the trend in the polls continues, Lula da Silva would triumph in the first round.

Changes in the political spectrum of Latin America (1992-2022)

via GIPHY

voting for change

For the internationalist Francisco Belaúnde, the shift to the left in the region does not necessarily respond to ideological reasons, but rather to discontent with previous administrations, which were mostly right-wing or center-right.

“This is not a conversion to leftism of the population. It has to do with replacing what was there, because they have disappointed. In many cases, voting is not ideological, but a way to seek change with respect to what is”, he maintains.

Carlos Novoa, also an internationalist, agrees that the shift is “a circumstantial issue.”

“Probably, when it’s time to go to elections again, if the governments of the left have a bad government, the right will return”, he points out. As indicated, it is possible that this is the case of Mexicowhere “if democracy is maintained, the left will lose power”

According to Novoa, the main reasons for the change in the political spectrum in the region are dissatisfaction with the free market model on the part of an important sector of the population and the pandemic caused by the COVID-19.

“It has to do with a questioning of various sectors to a free market model that has not been able to be satisfactory for all and that takes its toll. In second place is the issue of the pandemic, which has coincided with some changes in government”, he points out.

winning by little

In almost half of the countries in the region, the candidates who won the last elections did so by less than 10% of the votes compared to those who came in second. In six cases, the margin was less than 5%.

Peru is the country with the last closest presidential elections in Latin America. The difference in votes between peter castle Y Keiko Fujimori it was less than 1% of the total votes cast. Other States with elections won by a small difference of votes are Uruguay, Panama, Colombia and Paraguay (see table). In this last case, it was the tightest presidential election since the fall of the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, in 1989.

For Novoa, this narrowness in the electoral victories can generate a “crisis of legitimacy”, since the winning candidate “does not achieve an overwhelming victory” over the other options.

Belaúnde, for his part, considers that this is a sign of the growing polarization in the region.

“It could be a mark of polarization, in the sense that more and more people vote against one candidate rather than in favor of another.”, he assures.

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Satisfaction with democracy

According to According to the 2021 Latinobarometer Report, which collects the opinions obtained in 2020, only a quarter of Latin Americans are satisfied with democracy.

The countries that were most satisfied were Uruguay (68%), El Salvador (46%) and the Dominican Republic (39%). On the other hand, the least satisfied with the functioning of democracy were Ecuador (10%), Peru (11%) and Honduras (15%).

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Source: Elcomercio

Ronald Payne

I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.