Xi Jinping’s silences reveal his concern for the future

Last week, as Chinese leader Xi Jinping laid out his priorities for a third term in power, officials scrutinized his every sentence for clues about the country’s direction. And what he didn’t say was just as revealing as his words.

The omission of two sentences in his key report before the Communist Party Congress He laid out his concerns in an increasingly volatile world, where the United States is challenging China’s rise as an authoritarian superpower.

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For two decades, successive Chinese leaders declared in Congress that the country was in a “period of significant strategic opportunity,” implying that China it faced no risk of major conflict and could focus on stimulating economic growth.

“The exclusion of certain phrases and the grim warning about “dangerous storms” on the horizon are signs that the Chinese leader believes that international dangers have worsened”

Xi Jinping leaves the venue after the closing ceremony of the Communist Party Congress in Beijing. (Andy Wong – AP /)

And for even longer, the leaders said that “peace and development remain the themes of the times,” suggesting that regardless of the problems in the world, the most important trends favored China.

But both phrases, so invariable that they hardly drew attention, did not appear either in Xi’s report to Congress – which began last Sunday and ended on Saturday – nor in his 104-minute speech in which he summarized the report. , nor in the full 72-page Chinese version that was made available to officials and journalists.

According to several experts, the exclusion of the phrases and the grim warning of “dangerous storms” on the horizon are signs that the Chinese leader believes that international dangers have worsened, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine in February. . Xi, who will be almost assured of his re-election as secretary general on Sunday, believes that the world is more dangerous because of the support of the United States for the disputed Taiwan, China’s vulnerability to technological “congestion points” and the plans of the alliances led by China. by the West to increase its military presence in Asia.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping. (NOEL CELIS – AFP /)

“China’s external environment can now be described as populated with unprecedented dangers, and that is also the opinion of the highest party leaders,” says Hu Wei, a foreign policy scholar in Shanghai.

In the Communist Party, the leader’s words matter a great deal, determining Chinese policies, legislation and diplomacy. And the report to the Party Congress, every five years, is the basic guide for officials. Every sentence, every little tweak, every omission are seen as ways of signaling priorities.

“During the Congress, Xi did not publicly mention the new national security strategy of the United States and President Joe Biden that describes China as the main threat to American primacy”

In his report, Xi repeatedly said that China intended to contribute to global development and peace through its own initiatives, speaking of “strategic opportunities” that would offer trade and diplomatic benefits. But his analysis of global trends was mixed with caveats. “Our country has entered a period where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, and uncertainty and unforeseen factors are on the rise,” Xi said. And he added that while China has initiative and aims for international growth, “the world has entered a period of turbulence and transformation.”

“This marks an important, and perhaps fundamental, shift in his analysis of the world order,” says Christopher Johnson, chairman of the China Strategies Group and a former CIA analyst on Chinese politics.

During the Congress, Xi did not publicly mention the new national security strategy of the United States and President Joe Biden that describes China as the main threat to American primacy. Surely there was no need to remind Chinese officials.

The party promotes Xi as the nation’s “navigator” in the face of mounting threats. Saturday’s outcome in Congress made it clear that Xi will remain in power longer than his predecessor’s 10-year tenure and install a new leadership team dominated by his staunchest allies.

That new team, which was to be unveiled yesterday, is likely to promote officials Xi believes will respond to his call to “fight,” because of their loyalty to him and the party, and their ability to devise programs to improve control. and modernize the Armed Forces.

In Congress, senior officials and commanders of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had already urged China to adhere to Xi’s plans to renew military forces, speed up technological independence and strengthen ideological indoctrination to prevent subversive ideas among young people. .

“Xi carried out a historic rescue and transformation of the PLA forces,” General Xu Qiliang told military delegates in Congress. “In all actions, absolutely obey President Xi’s command.”

In his report, Xi presented some of his plans for China’s global rise, built in many cases on political measures already in place.

Xi called for speeding up processes to become more independent in key technologies and continue military modernization, including upgrading China’s relatively limited capabilities in nuclear weapons.

He said that Beijing will also be more active in international affairs and promote its own solutions to global security and development challenges. And he repeated that China wants to gain control of Taiwan peacefully, but if forced, it could resort to force.

Xi’s new phrases indicate that China needs to become more dynamic, says Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies in Beijing. “It’s as if Xi said: ‘We can’t sit back and enjoy a period of strategic opportunities.’ We have to go out and find more opportunities,” says Wang.

Xi’s report also marks a further step toward scrapping vocabulary and assumptions from the time when China implemented market reforms and engaged in friendly diplomacy toward the West.

The phrase referring to “peace and development” defined an era and was consolidated in the 1980s, when Deng Xiaoping’s generation introduced economic liberalization and strengthened ties with Washington, Tokyo and other former enemies, says Yong Den, professor of political science at the United States Naval Academy.

That era meant that China “had permission from the international environment to focus on modernization through opening up and reforms,” ​​says Den.

In 2002, another leader, Jiang Zemin, declared for the first time – shortly after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization – that China could enjoy some two decades of “strategic opportunities”, that is, free from serious risk. of a larger conflict. It was a time of commercial expansion and international hopes that China would continue to liberalize, in politics and in business. Beijing encouraged the idea of ​​a “peaceful rise” of China.

But today, Wang notes, the war in Ukraine, global tensions over the coronavirus pandemic, and Washington’s hard-line approach to Beijing have fueled a debate in China about whether the “period of strategic opportunity” still exists.

In a speech in late July to prepare officials for the Congress, Xi said his views had changed significantly. China still has many opportunities for growth, Xi noted, but also warned of “dangers and challenges” ahead.

By Chris Buckley

Source: Elcomercio