Why Moldova fears being the next country on Putin’s list after the invasion of Ukraine

moldova fear being the next country to invade Russia after the military operation carried out in Ukraine from February 24, 2022. The intelligence agency of the small European nation of 2.6 million inhabitants already warned last December that Vladimir Putin could launch a new offensive this 2023 with the aim of creating a land corridor through the southern Ukraine to the secessionist region of Transnistria, which is backed by Moscow.

But last week, the president Maia Sandu he tried to lower the tension by assuring that “a Russian military action is not imminent”, but he warned of a hybrid war in Moscow through disinformation and asked for help to combat it. He also listed other actions that could be carried out by Russian-backed saboteurs.

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A key factor in this situation is played by transnistriaa breakaway region in eastern Moldova to which Russia it has sent some 1,500 soldiers.

The Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia reported that this Sunday chisinauthe capital of moldovawoke up armored, with State security forces deployed in each of the corners of the city, in response to the escalation of tension and a massive march in which the main pro-Russian parties joined.

The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, speaks during a press conference at the presidential palace in Chisinau, on February 13, 2023. (EFE/EPA/DUMITRU DORU).

The protest was called by the Movement for the People, a newly created group with the support of the Russia-friendly Shor opposition party.

Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned last week. After her resignation, the Government informed of the alleged plans of Russia to destabilize the country.

The day Gavrilita resigned, two Russian missiles crossed the airspace of moldova and on Tuesday it was closed for two hours for security reasons.

Here are 5 keys to understanding what happens in moldova.

1.- A former Soviet republic that wants to join the European Union

moldova it was part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) until 1991, the year in which it declared its independence.

It is one of the poorest countries in Europe. His economy is number 138 in the world by volume of GDP.

Its GDP per capita (the division between the total GDP with the number of inhabitants of the country) reaches 5,230 dollars (Peru’s is 6,621 dollars).

It has historical ties to Russiabut now seeks to join the bloc of 27 countries that are part of the European Union.

moldova received the status of country aspiring to join the European Union in 2022, in what represents the beginning of a long and complicated process of several years.

People take part in a protest against the Moldovan government and its pro-European Union president in Chisinau on February 19, 2023. (Photo: Elena COVALENCO / AFP). (ELENA COVALENCO /)

The presence of Russian troops in transnistria prevents moldova fully control your own borders. If activated, the combat-ready Russian troops could quickly destabilize the region. Without border and territorial control, Moldova cannot enter the European Union. This is one of the conditions for entering the EU, notes an analysis by The Conversation.

2.- What President Maia Sandu said

The president of moldova, Maia Sandu, said a week ago that the Russians are behind a plan to carry out attacks on government buildings, hostage-taking and other violent actions. To do this, groups of saboteurs would be used in order to put the country “at the disposal of Russia” and make its hopes of entering the European Union fail and, incidentally, overthrow its government.

The president stressed that the war in Ukraine keeps her country “safe” from an invasion for now, but said that Russia is already waging “a hybrid war against moldova”.

“We need support to develop our strategic intelligence capabilities to deal with cyber threats. We need support to modernize our security and border control (…) and I think we need to work together and be more efficient in dealing with Russian propaganda. It is extremely difficult for us to deal with this problem alone.”he stated.

Sandu He maintained that Moscow wants to install an illegal government that “would put our country at risk and at the disposal of Russia, all in order to stop the process for us to join the European Union”.

3.- Russia’s response

Russia qualified the statements of the president of moldova as “absolutely unfounded and lacking in evidence”.

Through a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine of being behind this “disinformation” with the aim of fueling tensions between Russia and Moldova.

A Transnistrian border guard guards an area on the border with Ukraine on September 13, 2021. (Sergei GAPON / AFP). (SERGEI GAPON /)

4.- Zelensky’s warning

Before what was said by the Moldovan president, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, had assured that his country intercepted plans of the Russian security services that have the objective of destroying Moldova.

In a speech delivered in Brussels to the leaders of the European Union, Zelensky said he contacted the president Maia Sandu to inform him that they have “intercepted the plan for the destruction of Moldova by Russian intelligence”.

“This document shows who, how and when is going to break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over moldova… When I understood where that document came from, I immediately alerted Moldova about these threats in order to protect it. I’m sure they would have done the same.”he stated.

Transnistria, Moldova. (AFP).

5.- The Transnistria factor

In 1990 a separatist war broke out in the region of transnistria, located in the east of the country and with an extension of about 400 kilometers. It is situated on the banks of the Dniester River, on the border with Ukraine.

In 1992 a ceasefire was agreed and a contingent of Russian troops arrived at the site and remains there as a mission that seeks to guarantee peace in the region.

The self-declared autonomy of transnistriawhich claimed its independence under the name of Pridnestrovian Moldavian SSRhas not achieved international recognition.

According to BBC Mundo, in this territory is the largest arsenal from the Cold War: a warehouse with some 20,000 tons of weapons and ammunition. Said Russian arsenal is in the town of Kolbasna.

In September 2022, in her annual address to the UN General Assembly, the president Maia Sandu reiterated his request for the withdrawal of Russian troops from transnistria and the removal of weapons and ammunition stored in Kolbasna.

Source: Elcomercio