Criticism against the Russian army, personal ambition… how far can the boss of the Wagner group go?

Is the Russian army accused of “treason” by its own camp? Who better than Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner paramilitary group, to formulate this criticism. Putin’s “armed wing”, one of the strongest men of the invasion for nearly a year, has multiplied attacks on the Russian general headquarters in recent weeks, even urging the populace to put pressure on its behalf for the supply of ammunition. A way of displaying personal ambitions or just a desire to complete a military task?

“His speeches and his absence during Putin’s address to the nation show that, without going out alone, he shows a certain independence in relation to the central government,” explains Lukas Aubin, research director at IRIS, Russia specialist. . “Wagner and Prigogine were never mentioned in the speech,” insists Galia Ackermann, co-author of Putin’s black book while Russia owes them a number of small victories in this war. »

In addition to his Wagner Group, the businessman has also accumulated about 200 million euros over the past four years. Enough to make it necessary military but also financial support for Putin. According to Aurélien Duchen, research director and Russia specialist at the Euro Creative think tank, “For the first time in a long time, Putin is dependent on someone. He cannot deprive himself of the man who allowed him to take Soledar and advance towards Bakhmut, but he is also dependent on Wagner in Africa. »

“Prigozhin wanted to make himself too visible”

This is the whole paradox. Putin needs Prigozhin and Wagner, and the opposite is also true. “The Russian regime operates in a system of gifts and counter-gifts between supporters and the prince (Putin). Putin needs Wagner on the ground because the Russian army is not the professional army we imagined. Another tendency is that Prigogine, having gone completely alone, simply could not exist, ”analyzes Lucas Aubin.

A strategy that has so far paid off for both sides. American intelligence estimates that Wagner now has between 40,000 and 50,000 men, compared to 10,000 before the war. On the other hand, the Russian president can shed certain burdens, such as the Bakhmut offensive. “There is a kind of good cop, bad cop. It is likely that the Kremlin will give some leeway to Prigozhin’s criticism, because the army is already discredited. As long as these critics are not against Putin, this brings to life a semblance of internal dynamics, ”deciphers the author of the book, Aurélien Duchen. Russia: another strategic surprise?

However, the rift between the two men seems to have never been so strong. “Prigozhin wanted to be too visible from the very beginning of the war. In the end, Putin became afraid of this man, who has an army ready for anything, and who knows the Kremlin, because he worked there with the president. The decision was made to belittle, even destroy Wagner, depriving him of food and ammunition,” says Galia Akerman, co-author of the book. The Black Book of Putin..

“He doesn’t want to be a king, but a boyar”

From there to see the real opposition to Putin? “He never took concrete action against the Russian regime. All this criticism is directed against the intermediate bodies on the ground and the general staff, but never against Putin. Nobody can do it anyway, ”recalls Lukas Aubin, director of research at IRIS, a specialist in Russian geopolitics. In this context, it is hard to forget the fourteen Russian oligarchs who have died in worrying circumstances since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Could the 62-year-old businessman still claim Putin’s seat? In 2020, the former Kremlin kitchen installer entered politics for the first time, uniting the nationalist Rodina (Motherland) party, which ended in failure. “He belongs to a rather small ideological current, to the Slavophiles, who see the superior race in the Slavic race. This is not the current of Vladimir Putin,” explains Lucas Aubin.

It’s just a delay. According to the Meduza news site, Prigozhin is preparing the upcoming launch of a “conservative political movement” entirely at his service, including with the help of the Kovalchuk brothers, two relatives of one Vladimir Putin. In the event of a defeat in Ukraine, the position of the incumbent may weaken as the next presidential election in 2024 approaches. “In this case, there will be a series of possible candidates for power, and Prigozhin may be one of them. . But he is very unpopular in Russia. He is very far behind other politicians who are more media-oriented, ”the IRIS researcher is indignant.

If the Kremlin cannot be his target, what can he hope for? “His ambition is to become a great baron,” says Aurélien Duchen. He wants to be not a king, but a boyar. This is a UFO in Russia. The only one coming close is Ramzan Kadyrov in Chechnya. He understood that after the end of the conflict, the Russian state would no longer function as before, and there would be a place for it. But what to do? “His own state within a state. »