Trump to the bench: How will this affect the Republican Party and what effect will it have on the 2024 US elections?

The name of donald trump seems destined to go down in history american politics. And not exactly for the best reasons.

LOOK: Who is Stormy Daniels and what are the keys to the case that led to the indictment of Donald Trump

On Thursday night, a New York grand jury decided to indict the former president on criminal charges for paying porn actress Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence during the 2016 presidential campaign about an alleged extramarital affair they allegedly had. kept years ago.

As a result, Trump has become the first former US president to sit in the dock for a criminal offence.

The 76-year-old Republican was “shocked” after learning of the resolution, but is “willing to fight,” according to statements by his lawyer Joe Tacopina collected by various international agencies.

True to his style, Trump also assured through his Truth Social social network that the possible judge in charge of the case, Juan Manuel Merchan, would “hates”. The magistrate was in charge of overseeing the Trump Organization tax fraud trial last year.

WHAT NEXT NOW?

To date, the charges against Trump are unknown. However, the former president will have to appear before the Manhattan Criminal Court as part of the process.

According to the billionaire’s defense, he will travel Monday from his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, to New York to appear in court. Like other detainees, Trump will have to give his name, age, profession and submit to fingerprinting and being photographed.

The lawyer Tacopina assured that his client will not be handcuffed.

From then on, the process can take three paths: drop the charges against Trump, plead guilty in exchange for a more lenient sentence, or turn it into a trial.

Trump’s defense has already announced that he intends to plead “not guilty” and it is very unlikely that the charges against him will be dropped, so the highest probability is that the case will evolve towards a trial.

But even then the lawyers have prepared a series of appeals with which they will seek to lengthen the process.

Stormy Daniels is the central figure in the court case involving Donald Trump. The matter led to the historic and unprecedented first criminal indictment against a former president of the United States.

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

To what end would they seek to extend this trial? Most likely, they are looking to gain air until the 2024 presidential elections, ones in which Trump has already announced that he will participate.

In the United States, a criminally accused or convicted person can run for and be elected to any public office..

In addition, in 1970 the Department of Justice considered that a sitting president should not have to answer in court, not even for events prior to his inauguration, so the process would be suspended while he is in office.

A Quinnipiac University poll published in mid-March shows that Trump is the favorite candidate among Republicans with a 46% vote intention.

In second place is the current governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis with 32%.

“With one year to go before the elections, it is not clear what the candidates or alliances will be, both in Democrats and Republicans. What we can assure with absolute certainty is that Trump will play a very important political role in the future of the United States.”, he comments to Trade the Mexican analyst and expert in international politics, Brenda Estefan.

On the political side, the big question surrounding the process will be who will be able to best capitalize on this situation. Will Trump do it or will a Republican rival emerge to match?

“It’s hard to know how the Republican reaction will ultimately be because Donald Trump achieved with his party what Benjamin Netanyahu achieved in Israel with the Likud: radicalize it towards the extreme right. He took them out of his moderate, traditional center-right position into a force for aggressive hard-line conservatism. So, it will be necessary to see if this radicalization of the Republican Party is maintained or even if it increases.”, says the international analyst Claudio Fantini in this regard.

“I believe that Trump will use this event to his political advantage. Let us remember that last week, when he considered that this resolution would be given, he called on his supporters to take to the streets in a mobilization with the arguments that we already know. It will also be necessary to hope that his political rivals use this event to attack him. The reality is that if we look at Trump’s popularity it has grown in recent months. Even from February to date, it has increased significantly among Republicans who will vote in primaries. He currently collects a 54% vote intention, well ahead of the 24% of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis”, says Estefan for his part.

Last week, hundreds of supporters of Donald Trump protested in front of the Manhattan Criminal Court in rejection of the alleged arrest of the Republican leader that he himself announced on social networks and never took place. The situation forced the New York Police to redouble security in the area. (ANGELA WEISS / AFP /)

Both analysts agree that Trump will seek a way to capitalize on this judicial setback in exchange for political gain. Fantini points out that the Republican’s speech will focus on the fact that the process “is a conspiracy of the left led by Joe Biden to prevent him from being president.”

“In other words, to outlaw it, to use the term that Cristina Kirchner uses in Argentina. Definitely, what we see is that both from the left and from the right, world leaders, presidents and former presidents, who are accused of corruption or serious crimes, victimize themselves by saying that it is about dark conspiracies to destroy them and prevent them from coming back.”, points out the internationalist.

For Estefan, in addition, this situation reflects that Trump has managed to seduce his followers beyond reason and by appealing to emotions and polarization. “I believe that, as in other countries, populist leaderships that move the emotions of the electorate, manage to mobilize society around their political projects, despite the fact that often these do not have technical or financial solvency. Trump has done it throughout his political career by criticizing the actors who hurt society the most, focusing on short little phrases.“, Explain.

OUT OF THE CAREER

And is there a scenario in which Trump could be put out of the race? Yes it exists, it would not apply in this process but it would in another that swarms dangerously over the Republican leader.

Under the US Constitution, having participated in a “insurrection” or one “rebellion” against the country disqualifies a citizen from running for president.

Let us remember that the committee in charge of investigating the assault on the Capitol concluded by providing a conclusion to the Justice Department of incriminating him for having “called an insurrection” during that fateful January 6, 2021.

Although charges have not yet been filed against Trump in that case, it cannot be ruled out that this will happen before 2024.

The congressional committee that investigated the assault on the Capitol concluded by recommending charging Trump for “encouraging the insurgency” during the violent day of January 6, 2021.

But what if Trump is out of the race?

“Most Republicans believe that Trump was not responsible for the assault on the Capitol, but that it was organized by far-left groups that wanted to make Trump look bad, such as the famous Antifa. That lets us see that they have bought that speech that goes against all the evidence. Knocking him out of the race would further polarize American society.”, fears Estefan.

Fantini, for his part, argues that a small opportunity would open up for the moderate wing of the Republican Party to regain control of it, although he admits that it is a fairly distant option.

“What would have to be seen is if, in the event that Trump is out of the competition, it would be Ron DeSantis or a representative of the moderate wing, his replacement. The truth is that the moderate wing of the Republicans is greatly diminished, they have already lost John McCain, who was their most powerful figure. He is left with Liz Cheney, the daughter of George W. Bush’s former vice president, who still represents moderate Republicanism. But the truth is that they are very diminished, today the figure that appears the most is that of Governor DeSantis“, it states.

Source: Elcomercio