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Why the elections in the State of Mexico and Coahuila mark the exit in the race for the Presidency

The results that derive this Sunday from the vote of more than 15 million people in the Mexican states of Coahuila and Mexico statethe most populous in the country, will kick off the race for the 2024 presidency and are expected to confirm the rise of the ruler National Regeneration Movement (Brunette).

According to experts consulted by EFE, these elections are the last political hurdle that the parties need to overcome before beginning to define their presidential candidates and taking cover to face the succession of the current president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

LOOK HERE: Elections State of Mexico and Coahuila 2023: more than 15 million Mexicans are called to vote in key elections

They are totally going to be the starting gun, because the candidacies have not yet been discussed or strategies have been put together. Once the elections are over, there will be no pretext for postponing the start of real negotiations”, explained the political scientist from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). Jorge Marquez.

The high probability that Brunette I snatched him Mexico state to the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), where it has governed uninterrupted for nearly 90 years, considered that it would instill in the party founded by López Obrador a feeling of “early victory” facing the presidential elections.

However, the forecast that the PRI, which is running in coalition with the National Action Party (PAN) and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), maintain the state of Coahuila, will calm the waters of an opposition alliance that will reach 2024 significantly diminished.

The scenario of Morena’s electoral triumph in the presidential elections will begin to be prefigured”, assessed the expert in electoral processes from the Autonomous University of Mexico (UAM) javier santiago.

Although the parties will begin to move their chips next Monday, the electoral process does not legally start until September, when they must begin to formalize their candidacies.

López Obrador’s party, although it has yet to determine through an internal process who will be its representative, is the clear favorite in all the polls. The PRI-PAN-PRD coalition he will try to face it, although not at any price.

MORE INFORMATION: Where to vote today in the Edomex and Cohauila 2023 Elections: consult INE, today Sunday June 4

The alliance will see what reaches it and what does not. If they do not reach the presidency, they will not put money into the candidacy, because they are going for Congress so that the excesses of López Obrador are not repeated.”, predicted Márquez.

Reconfiguration of forces

Both analysts agreed that the results of the state elections will confirm a reconfiguration of forces at the national level: Morena, according to Márquez, as “a steamroller”; the PRI, according to Santiago, “in a dying state”.

In this way, the PRI, which governed the country for more than 70 years, will have to adapt its demands to its new reality, which would tip the balance in favor of the PAN when it comes to selecting the coalition candidate.

Morena, for her part, would bring together such a number of votes that her partners in this six-year term, the labor party (PT) and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM), they would not even get representation.

The situation of the Green and the PT may become precarious, they are losing their ability to blackmail”, said the UAM academic.

The ghost of fraud

In the weeks prior to the state elections, the ghost of a possible fraud was fanned from the parties themselves and some of the media. Especially in the State of Mexico, although the electoral institute of the region and the national president of Morena, Mario DelgadoThey have flatly denied it.

ALSO SEE: Elections 2023 in Edomex and Coahuila | What do Mexicans choose this Sunday, June 4?

The experts interviewed by EFE, however, pointed out that distrust is an inherent element in the elections in Mexico and that cases of vote buying are likely.

The traditional fraud mechanisms, which were carried out by the State, are no longer possible. What could happen is vote buying, something that all parties do”, Santiago stressed.

The President Counselor of National Electoral Institute (INE), Guadalupe Taddeicalled last Thursday citizens to vote “in peace, freely and informed” and welcomed the presence of numerous electoral observers and foreign visitors, “figures that contribute to certainty and transparency”.

Source: Elcomercio

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