How does Putin seek to give an image of strength after the rebellion of the Wagner Group?

Vladimir Putin has pointed out that he gave instructions to avoid bloodshed during the fleeting rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhinboss of Wagne private military groupr, within the same Russia and congratulated the Russian military for preventing everything from ending in “a civil war.”

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“From the beginning of the events, measures were taken on my direct instructions to avoid a great deal of bloodshed.”, the Russian president said Monday in a televised address. Since then, he has increased efforts to downplay the situation and deliver messages of unity, but the blow to his authority is evident.

Francisco Belaúnde Matossian, internationalist and university professor, considers that the rebellion of the Wagner Group can be considered as a challenge against the authority of the Kremlin leader.

“Vladimir Putin’s image has been weakened after the rebellion of the Wagner group. To get out of the matter he has had to negotiate and reach an agreement. The image of him as a person who controls everything has been quite weakened, that is clear, especially because over the years he has built an image of being tough, of punishing all those who oppose him, ”Belaúnde points out to El Trade.

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He adds that, after the rebellion, Putin is betting on implying that everything continues as normal, even with regard to the war with Ukraine. He stressed that it is a common strategy of the Russian president in the face of different complicated events.

“He always says that everything is safe. He has always taken a position of saying ‘don’t worry, we’ll handle that’, but, of course, when the rebellion occurred they took action. Once this was over they went out to tell people that everything has been brought under control quickly and to get on with their normal lives. This is a usual strategy of Vladimir Putin, ”he stressed.

Map of western Russia locating the three oblasts where the presence of the Wagner group combatants was reported on June 24 and from which they progressively withdrew on June 25. Source: AFP

That speech was evidenced in his pronouncements yesterday. While congratulating itself that Russia managed to stop a civil war and trying to present itself as the savior of the country, the Putin government, which admitted that Wagner’s financing was entirely provided by the Russian state, dropped the charges against Prigozhin and others implicated in the armed rebellion. The head of the Wagner Group is already safe in Belarus.

The truth is that Putin is going through his worst phase at a time when Ukraine is reinforcing its counteroffensive in the battlefield. In addition, the Kremlin forces no longer have all the fighters of the Wagner Group, which were key in recent months for Moscow, especially in the capture of Bakhmut.

While the rebellion was an act of desperation and without calculation on Prigozhin’s part, it is a consensus that the rebellion has managed to cause a serious problem for Putin’s political image.

“Now this does not necessarily mean that Putin is going to fall. On the other hand, everything that has happened favors Ukraine because it demoralizes and disconcerts the Russian Army”, says Belaúnde.

loose ends

Enrique Banús, director of the Institute of European Studies of the Udep, believes that there are still many loose ends in this case, since the behind the scenes of what happened with the high command of the Russian Army during the rebellion are unknown. “We’re missing the most interesting part of the movie, so to speak. Putin has obviously come out to say that nothing has happened. What is striking is that he sent Prigozhin into exile, ”he commented.

For the expert, if there was no resistance from the Russian Army, it was probably because the military was too demoralized to fight or because they had orders to let the mercenaries of the Wagner Group advance so that time runs in Putin’s favor and he could prepare a strategy.

“We really don’t know exactly what happened. What is convincing is that Prigozhin realized that the Wagner Group was going to be dissolved. It was a protest gesture. Indeed, Prigozhin is very much at enmity with the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and with the high military commands. He accuses them of inefficiency. He accuses them of not putting on their boots and following the issues from a table in Moscow, ”explains Banús.

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The role of the Army

The Russian Army is demotivated and in a very bad condition, especially since there are many young people without any experience among its ranks. That is why Putin’s gratitude to the soldiers has drawn attention in Russia.

“It is an incredible message from Putin. He thanks the Army because they haven’t done anything. It is a paradox. He thanks the soldier for his bravery in standing down. It seems to me that it is the first time that something like this has happened,” says Banús.

The analyst also believes that it is rash to say that Putin’s decline has been consummated. In the end Putin has managed to get rid of Prigozhin, a character who helped him a lot, but now he found it uncomfortable. “This was what Putin wanted. But we still don’t know. We are not talking about the western world where we know a lot of things. We are finding out what they want us to know and a little more. You have to see what else is coming out”, explains Banús.

It also highlights that too many judgments are being made hastily about this rebellion. Although it may seem that Putin does not have the situation under control, it is not known to what extent, especially since “no military man joined any of Prigozhin’s demands against the Defense Minister.”

“I am not clear about whether the Wagner Group rebellion means that Putin’s image, in terms of security, has been weakened. Prigozhin has not achieved anything. He has not managed to get the Minister of Defense removed from office, which was one of his demands. Prigozhin has not really achieved anything, he only advanced kilometers, ”said Banús.

Source: Elcomercio