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The great surprise of PASO 2023 was, without a doubt, javier milei. The right-libertarian candidate not only managed to win the majority of votes within his party, La Libertad Avanza, but also obtained the highest percentage of popular support in the entire political spectrum. In other words, today Milei is the favorite to occupy the Pink House. However, he has an electoral race of at least two months ahead of him that promises not to be easy.
READ ALSO: What are the most radical proposals of Javier Milei, the most voted candidate in the primaries of Argentina
At 97.39% of the votes counted, miley he obtained more than 7 million votes in favor, becoming his party’s candidate with 30.04% of total votes. Meanwhile, the second most supported of the general spectrum was Mauricio Macri’s former Security Minister, Patricia Bullrich, with the main opposition coalition Together for Change (28.27%) and below them is the current Super Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa. , with the flag of the official Unión por la Patria (27.27%).
The surprise behind the victory of miley It occurs for different reasons. One of them is that the polls predicted a decline in their support in recent weeks and the other is that Together for Change has been positioned as the main opposition force for two years.
“The only accurate data they gave was for the result of Juntos, which seemed to many to be wrong data because logic indicated that Rodríguez Larreta would beat Bullrich. Later, they speculated a lot with the image of Millei, she had a permanent rise and fall but in the final stretch they agreed that her vote was falling. Undoubtedly, the surprise was, on the one hand, the number of votes that Milei reached and, on the other hand, what Juntos y Unión por la Patria left us, appearing so far behind.”, he comments to Trade Santiago Sautel, journalist, political scientist and director of RealPolitik.
Claudio Fantini, also an Argentine journalist and political scientist, agrees with Sautel’s vision of the impact of the election. “The result was a slap in the face for the two main coalitions in Argentine politics. Together they ceased to be the main force of the opposition and in their place is La Libertad Avanza de Milei. While for Union, it is the worst result that Peronism has achieved in its entire history, since the recovery of democracy in 1983. It had never dropped below 35% and now it has not even reached 30%.”, details the expert.
Another reason is the little support his party had received during provincial or regional elections in the past. “The provincial results show that the performance of Milei’s party was very bad, however, in the national election he did very well. Milei’s photo at the national level is very different from the one she has at the provincial level; that is to say, the people voted for them all to leave at the national level, but in many cases they endorsed the task of the ruling party in their municipalities and provinces. This reflects that despite his chances of being the next president, the rest of the forces will continue to govern the majority of districts.Sautel explains.
The best reflection of what Sautel mentions is that while in the provincial elections all of Milei’s candidates obtained insignificant results, in the PASO on Sunday the libertarian was the favorite in 16 of the 24 Argentine jurisdictions.
Argentina arrives at these elections on October 22 in a critical social and economic situation, facing year-on-year inflation of 116%, with close to half of the population living in poverty and an exchange rate gap close to 110%.
In this sense, the victory of miley It did not seem to be to the liking of the markets and caused the most important fall in bonds since June 2022 to be recorded on Monday the 14th, while the blue dollar climbed to 350 pesos, which would be mainly due to the uncertainty of investors in the face of a figure like Milei’s.
Throughout the campaign, the Libertarian candidate has promised to close the central bank, dollarize the economy and slash state spending.
“Anyone is scared of extremes, but when you look at the results you discover that more than half of the population chooses a far-right alternative, between miley and Patricia Bullrich. This is a phenomenon that we have not seen since the return of democracy in the country. Personally, the possibility of a candidate from the extreme right winning does not reassure me, but what happened is that the sector that governed for so many years did not listen to the claims of the people and they ended up getting fed up.”, says Sautel in this regard.
The current president Alberto Fernández spoke along these lines, through his account on the X social network, where he assured that “We have heard the voice of our people. Now begins the real campaign in favor of democracy and the rights of the people. We are going to continue united, defending the homeland and work, taking care of the rights of the people”.
We have heard the voice of our people.
Now begins the real campaign in favor of democracy and the rights of the people. We are going to continue united, defending the homeland and work, taking care of the rights of the people.
– Alberto Fernandez (@alferdez) August 14, 2023
For Sautel, it is a late and hypocritical pronouncement. “Democracy is not choosing a representative and letting him rule you, it is deeper. Mainly it is to represent the popular will while holding office. It is not a dream. After 40 years of democracy, the Argentine has not seen his social demands settled. Listening to the president today after four years in government, added to Cristina Fernández’s eight and Néstor Kirchner’s four, is a level of absolute hypocrisy. It is clear that in 16 years they have not finished resolving any social demand. Fernández’s voice is highly discredited, even the vote for Massa is more linked to those who seek to avoid extreme right positions than to those who support the current management”, says the specialist.
Despite his clear victory on Sunday the 13th, the road ahead for miley In his desire to reach the Casa Rosada, it still looks extensive and paved.
This is how the pro-government candidate Massa seems to remember it, who described the PASSED As the “first time” and assured that still “we have the second half and the extra time and the penalties, and we will be fighting until the last minute”.
Who also maintains hope is the opposition Bullrich, who based her campaign on promises of security, better taxes and the end of government bureaucracy “This is a society that demands profound change, from the roots”, assured the candidate on Monday the 14th.
“The October election is a coin in the air. Two months and a bit is a long time.”, Fantini comments to this newspaper.
After knowing the official candidates, Argentina you will have to attend on October 22 to elect your president. In the event that no option obtains more than 45% of valid votes or 40% plus an advantage of 10 points over its closest rival, it will have to go to a second electoral round or ballot in November.
“The impression I had on Sunday night is different from the one I had on Monday morning. I believe that the country continues to digest the results because nobody expected them. As an early analysis, I think Milei has many options to enter a second round, the big discussion is who will accompany him. It gives me the impression that Bullrich does not have much room for growth and that the votes of those who no longer have options could go better for Massa. But as we always say here, this is Argentina and it is very difficult to predict anything.says Sautel.
Fantini agrees with this analysis, especially because of the role it currently plays Massa in government. “It must be taken into account that the one who fared the worst of the three, Sergio Massa, is not the one who has the least chance of reaching the ballot but is perhaps the favorite to go to that round against Milei. Massa currently holds power, Alberto Fernández is just a ghostly and disappeared figure, and in these two months Massa can pull rabbits out of the hat, implement highly demagogic policies that in the short term give him the necessary effect on the population to get their vote . Anything can happen to him, it cannot be ruled out that a very vast apparatus like the one Peronism has in Buenos Aires, in addition to many provincial governments, is used to mobilize their own votes”, points out the expert.
The PASSED they had a turnout of 69.62% of the population, one of the lowest in their history, and according to a JP Morgan report, turnout usually increases by four percentage points from the primaries to the October elections. In this sense, various analysts have assured that most likely the majority of votes will go in favor of Bullrich or Massa, since many of those absent are usually affiliated with a party.
However, Fantini considers that Milei should not be taken for granted either. “We cannot rule out the momentum that will cause last Sunday’s victory in Milei, this result may have a vote-dragging effect.”comment.
Source: Elcomercio
I am Jack Morton and I work in 24 News Recorder. I mostly cover world news and I have also authored 24 news recorder. I find this work highly interesting and it allows me to keep up with current events happening around the world.
