Portugal: 5 minutes to understand political crisis amid corruption allegations

“End of the cycle” or even “bomb”, Portuguese newspapers will write this Wednesday. After eight years in power, Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa abruptly resigned on Tuesday, embroiled in a corruption case that has led to the indictment of one of his ministers and his chief of staff. “The functions of Prime Minister are incompatible with any suspicion of my integrity. In these circumstances, I submitted my resignation to the President of the Republic.” he told the press. The resignation was accepted by the head of state, conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

What is the Prime Minister accused of?

The Antonio Costa scandal concerns allegations of “embezzlement, active and passive corruption among political officials and influence peddling.” Investigators are questioning the terms under which license concessions for “lithium exploration” in northern Portugal, a “hydrogen energy project” and a “hydrogen energy project” were awarded. the company’s Start Campus center in Sines, south of Lisbon.

During the investigation, “the name and powers of the prime minister” were “named”, the prosecutor said in a statement on Tuesday. He is suspected of interfering “with the aim of unblocking procedures” in the context of this case and will be “the subject of an independent investigation.” He has not yet been charged.

On Tuesday morning, a series of searches took place: in the official residence of the prime minister, in several houses, ministries and law firms. Taking into account the elements gathered by investigators, “the risk of flight and continuation of criminal activity,” the justice issued “arrest warrants” for the head of the administration, Antonio Costa, the mayor de Sines and two administrators of the Start campus. The charges were brought against the Portuguese Minister of Infrastructure, João Galamba, as well as the President of the Board of Directors of the Portuguese Environmental Protection Agency (APA).

Speaking to the press on Tuesday, Antonio Costa said he was “surprised” by the start of the investigation, which rejected the practice of “any illegal activity.” But “no one is above the law (…) the judiciary has the right to investigate,” he said during an interview with his ministers on Tuesday evening.

What are the precedents?

The resignation is “sudden” but comes “after a series of tensions and crises over the past year” and several government resignations, historian Yves Leonard, a specialist on Portugal and a lecturer at Sciences-po, explains to Le Parisien. António Costa, a strongman in the government as well as the Portuguese Socialist Party, has seen his popularity plummet in recent months, in particular due to the TEPgate affair.

The scandal erupted at the end of 2022 after the payment of severance pay in the amount of 500 thousand euros to the PVR administrator. (Portuguese national airline), who then took control of the air traffic control company and a few months later became Minister of Finance. Then several ministers resigned, which significantly weakened Antonio Costa’s position. Tuesday’s resignation, if it remains sudden, is therefore a continuation of what has been seen in recent months.

By retiring, the socialist “allows education to take place” and “does his duty by setting an example, he leaves with his head held high,” comments Yves Leonard. It also allows him to “preserve his personal future” in politics by leaving until the scandal passes.

What consequences?

Several scenarios are being considered to replace Antonio Costa. The President of the Republic may call early parliamentary elections to establish a socialist majority or to create another one. But given the rise of the far right over several months, this election could lead to a “draft” for the party, says Yves Leonard. Otherwise, the president may choose a replacement from among the socialists. If this party is “weakened” by the current scandal, “several names are circulating” for Antonio Costa’s successor, the expert assures.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on Thursday convened party representatives and the Council of State, as required by the Constitution, before he could dissolve parliament and call early elections. He will then address the nation to announce his decision.

The Socialist Party is “ready for all scenarios, be it early elections or a change of leader in the government,” PS President Carlos Cesar said on Tuesday. For its part, the main right-wing opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), called for early elections.