Governance, the great challenge of the new Milei government in Argentina

After the surprise of the libertarian’s comfortable victory Javier Milei during the second round in ArgentinaMonday began with the big question of how the new government will face the crisis that is ravaging the country and implement, from December 10th, the radical proposals that took Milei to the Casa Rosada if his party is a minority in both legislative chambers and does not govern in any region.

TO LOOK: The transition in Argentina begins without the scheduled meeting between Fernández and Milei

The liberal economist also promised throughout his campaign drastic reforms that aimed above all to reduce the size of the State and privatize a series of companies, such as hydrocarbons, in a country with annual inflation of 143% and poverty of 40%.

During his victory speech, Milei guaranteed that “there is no room for half measures” in the new Argentina he promises to build. In a round of radio interviews he gave between Sunday and yesterday, Milei repeated that he will seek to privatize both the oil company Yacimientos Petrolófilos Fiscales (YPF), in state power since 2011, and the state media: Public Television, National Radio and the Telam news.

“YPF first needs to be recomposed. Since Mr. (Axel) Kicillof decided to nationalize it, the deterioration that has been done to the company in terms of results so that it is worth less than when it was expropriated… Obviously the first thing to do is to rebuild it,” he considered and specified.

Milei takes charge of a country with annual inflation of 143% and poverty of 40%.

But the task will be titanic if we consider that La Libertad Avanza has only 38 deputies in a chamber of 257 members; and with 7 senators out of a total of 72.

Furthermore, the October elections left 10 provinces under the control of Juntos pela Change (a coalition that includes parties that supported Milei in the second round), 8 under the leadership of the União Peronista por la Patria and another 6 with governors from provincial parties.

Libertarians, however, had to be content with choosing “three mayors in cities with less than 2 thousand inhabitants“, highlights analyst Mariel Fornoni, director of the consultancy Management & Fit, to the EFE agency.

With this scenario Milei will only have one way out: negotiate and not always in a comfortable way.

“Although Milei had 50% of the votes, her vote is the 30% that was maintained from PASO until the general elections. The rest are borrowed votes because they represented change, but do not necessarily support all of her proposals. Therefore, your challenge will be to moderate yourself without losing your identity.“, he comments The trade Alexandra Morales, member of the “No Sin Mujeres” network of Political Scientists specialized in political communication.

To begin with, both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate will have to agree on details with Together for Change, the center-right coalition led by former president Mauricio Macri and which included Patricia Bullrich as a candidate in this process.

This coalition has 94 congressmen and 21 senators, so not even the sum of this strength would give libertarians the necessary majority to promote their ambitious agenda.

And as if that were not enough, Morales recalls that the coalition’s support was not total, especially because the Radical Civic Union was opposed to supporting the candidate who spent the first part of the campaign hurling insults against the aforementioned party and its leaders.

“Today we are facing a very fragmented scenario, even Together for Change was fragmented, so it remains to be seen what position each side will take after this recomposition, who will be the opposition and who will support. And we will also have to see how Peronism will work, whether as a united front or as factions within Congress.,” says Morales.

“At least 35 deputies will be able to join Milei’s almost automatic support, but this is not enough and will have to be negotiated with the radical wing of the opposition, although this type of majority is recalculated in each discussion.”, says the director of political analysis at the Legislative Directorate foundation, Leandro Domínguez.

Morales highlights that the presence of former president Macri could end up moderating certain of Milei’s positions, although at the same time this change could lead him to lose ground among his followers who seek more radical changes.

“Milei has shown great difficulty in giving in on certain issues, but after his approach, Macri may be able to find that balance. He has a big challenge ahead, but it will depend on how he moderates his speech and finds common ground.“, Explain.

For Argentine political scientist Alexandra Morales, the presence of Mauricio Macri could end up moderating certain of Milei’s positions. (JUAN MABROMATA/)

Furthermore, during yesterday’s session, Milei’s team and that of the outgoing president, Alberto Fernández, could not agree on the date or place to start the transition meetings.

As for his ambitious agenda, on Sunday the libertarian announced in several interviews that he will try to privatize YPF and sell Televisão Pública, Rádio Nacional, as well as the official news agency Télam.

What Milei ruled out is that public education and health be privatized, as they are areas of provincial and not state jurisdiction. “This was part of the fear campaign.“, assured the elected official to Rádio Continental.

“This generates much more tranquility among a group of its voters, without neglecting its most anti-Peronist voter, who said it will eliminate the figure of the omnipresent State that has benefited a few. More radical measures, such as privatizations, will be more difficult, which is why I consider taking these measures in the short and medium term very complex. The social agenda will prevail over Milei’s political agenda. Citizens, before asking for the privatization of YPF or public media, will expect you to solve problems such as inflation, poverty or foreign debt negotiation,” says Morales.

Morales highlights that Milei will have to put social demands before his own government agenda, mainly because Peronism will be very strong in the streets. (MARCOS BRINDICCI/)

It must be remembered that Argentina is governed by a federal model, therefore each region applies its own constitutions, a factor that also involves a constant flow of negotiations between national and regional governments.

“Governors can move closer or further away from Milei, which would limit their work somewhat. Let us also remember that Congress is made up of provincial deputies and senators; In other words, they also respond to these provincial governments. Here the role of the Minister of the Interior will be fundamental because he must be a person who can work together and reach agreements with the governors.“, adds the political scientist.

In this sense, Morales trusts that the role played by Macri and his technical and political teams will be fundamental. “The PRO – Macrista arm of Juntos pela Change – will be one of the major beneficiaries. It is still too early to say which positions they will occupy, although Milei has already spoken about some ministries. But the determining factor is that the PRO has management experience because Macri was president for 4 years and head of government in the Federal Capital for 8 years. Milei should take advantage of the experience that each PRO technical and political team will add”, he comments.

Source: Elcomercio