“War could break out at any moment”: new spy satellites, drones… why Kim Jong-un is escalating the situation

In a lengthy speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un once again attacked the United States. At the end of the five-day meeting, a large year-end gathering that shapes the country’s strategic orientation, he accused Washington of “various types of military threats” and ordered its military to maintain “the power of an overwhelming response to war.” “It is a fait accompli that war could break out at any time on the Korean Peninsula due to the enemy’s reckless attempts to invade us,” the leader said.

His statements were followed by concrete announcements: the ruling party announced the launch of three new spy satellites in 2024, the construction of drones and the development of electronic warfare capabilities. Putting an operational spy satellite into orbit will optimize North Korea’s intelligence search, especially against its southern rival, by giving it access to critical data ahead of a military conflict, experts say.

After two consecutive failures in May and June, North Korea successfully launched its first military surveillance satellite into orbit in November. The regime has since said it has provided images of key U.S. and South Korean military installations, but has not revealed images it says it has.

In addition, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik estimates that the new reactor, located at North Korea’s main nuclear complex, will undoubtedly be fully operational by next summer. Last week the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) observed hot water emissions indicating commissioning.

In 2023, North Korea conducted a record number of ballistic missile tests, violating numerous UN resolutions prohibiting it. But the Security Council was unable to impose new sanctions against him due to vetoes by China and Russia.

These allies are Pyongyang’s strength: despite international economic sanctions since 2016, North Korea’s economy continues to function. “There are violations of resolutions, and we think about China, which does not strictly implement Security Council resolutions,” suggests Antoine Bondat, director of the Korea program at the Foundation for Strategic Studies, in an interview with France Culture.

Nuclear weapons, ‘an integral part of the country’s identity’

For the researcher, nuclear weapons are first and foremost a political weapon: the country has enshrined in its constitution the status of a nuclear power and has successfully tested the Hwasong-18, the most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile in its arsenal capable of reaching its target. United States. “The institutionalization of these weapons means that they are no longer simply the property of the regime, but are an integral part of its identity, making it impossible to abandon them in the short term,” he wrote in the report.

In recent years, Kim Jong Un has even taken advantage of tensions over Taiwan and the war in Ukraine to make significant technological advances. And improve your ballistic and nuclear arsenal by increasing the number of tests.

Why such a rush? To ensure the survival and legitimacy of the regime, says Antoine Bondaz. In this way, he can present himself as “the defender of the Korean nation against the American and, by extension, Western threat, and demonstrate his ability to innovate in order to technologically catch up with other countries.” And here we rather enter into techno-nationalist logic. »

“Kim Jong-un is afraid of his people”

Thus, the threat of war will become a way to distract the attention of the people while the economic situation of the country is grim. According to Norito Kunisue, a columnist for the Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan’s main daily newspapers, “Kim Jong Un fears his people and will do anything to ensure his power. »

During a party meeting, Kim Jong Un said the country was in the grip of a “persistent and uncontrollable crisis situation,” which he said was to blame for the United States and South Korea. However, in 2018, the two Koreas began the process of rapprochement. But it was destroyed, and tensions between the two enemies were now at their peak. From now on, North Korea is no longer seeking reconciliation: it has ordered a “fundamental change of direction” in managing relations with its southern neighbor.

South Korean intelligence agencies predict that Pyongyang will engage in military provocations and cyber attacks targeting election campaigns in the United States and South Korea in 2024.