Israel is still under threat of imminent attack from Iran

In recent days, Tehran has vowed to respond to an attack attributed to Israel on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that, according to a non-governmental organization, killed 16 people, including two generals of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s ideological army. Supreme leader and regime number one Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated on Wednesday that Israel “must be punished.”

In Washington, US President Joe Biden immediately said he expected Iran to take action “soon.” The United States announced Friday it was sending reinforcements to the Middle East as Israel stands on alert in the face of a possible Iranian attack.

Since then, Israel’s allies have been on high alert, keeping in mind that Iran technically has the military capacity to strike Israel hard. A frontal attack would then be a serious escalation of the current limited conflict between Israel and Hamas, with the risk of a total conflagration in the Middle East.

Several possible attack scenarios

According to experts, several attack scenarios are possible if the Sultanate of Oman, which often acts as a mediator between the United States and Iran, fails to calm the situation.

According to several Iranian sources cited by Reuters, Tehran’s diplomatic chief Hossein Amir Abdollahian sent a message to Washington last Sunday during his visit to Muscat that his country’s “response” would not lead to an “escalation” of tensions. tensions and that Tehran would be “in no hurry” to respond to the Israeli attack in Damascus.

However, according to Reuters, a US intelligence source, for his part, confirmed that Iran’s response would be “controlled”, “without escalation” and that Tehran would “likely” call on “its regional relays to launch a certain number of attacks on Israel.”

Its representatives include the Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias and Yemeni Houthi rebels. Meanwhile, Lebanese Hezbollah announced on Friday that it had fired “dozens of rockets” at Israeli positions in response, it said, to Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli army, for its part, reported that “about 40 shots were detected from Lebanese territory, some of which were intercepted.” “There were no reports of casualties,” the army said, adding that it had earlier intercepted two “Hezbollah explosive drones.”

Playing billiards with several pillows

Under these conditions, the most dangerous way to incite a conflict would be for Iran to attack Israel directly from its territory by sending missiles. Israel has already warned that in this case, “Israel will respond and attack Iran,” according to Israel Katz, its head of diplomacy.

But in this case, Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear facilities while the country seeks to obtain the bomb. But above all, the Tehran regime is currently facing a social and economic crisis and will likely find it difficult to maintain a frontal war over time.

According to experts, the most likely scenario will be a kind of billiards game on several sites using their relays in the Middle East. One hypothesis put forward could be an operation in the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967 and from where Israeli fighters flew to bomb the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital. This operation will be carried out by Lebanese Hezbollah or Iraqi Shiite militias. Thus, Iran will not be directly responsible, but will be able to retaliate.

There is also another possibility that Iran has pursued in the past. Iran does not respond immediately. But in the coming months or even years, an attack or attack could be directed against Israeli interests abroad, such as an embassy, ​​an aircraft, etc. Iran has numerous relay sites, especially in Africa. And according to this hypothesis, the press release approving this act refers to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.