The Latino vote is increasingly relevant, could it define the vote between Biden and Trump?

According to a projection by the Census Bureau of U.S, by the year 2060, 1 in 4 Americans will be of Latino origin. Hispanics are the largest minority in the country and their presence is increasingly strong, which is why their votes become more important in each election. They will make a difference in 2024, when Joe Biden It is donald trump Will they see each other’s faces again?

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The importance of the Latino vote has been talked about for decades, but this expectation has not necessarily come true. Hispanics are an attractive percentage for politicians, but this is not reflected in the number of Latinos who actually vote, or in the advertising and resources that the Democratic and Republican parties allocate to capturing a voting population that, due to its volume, could define an election.

As of November 2024, more than 36 million Hispanics are eligible to vote, or 14.7% of the entire US voting population. In 2020, that number was 32.3 million and those who finally went to the polls exceeded 16 million, which meant a record for Latinos in terms of participation, but they were only half as high.

“I am a little more critical of this conception that the Hispanic vote is decisive and has the capacity to define a presidential election, because it really did not have the characteristic of being a pivotal vote. One of the reasons is abstentionism”, Mexican analyst Fausto Carbajal, internationalist and consultant on political risk and security, tells this newspaper.

A man holds a “Latinos for Trump” sign at a protest after Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election in Austin, Texas, on November 7, 2020. (Photo:/ AFP) (SERGIO FLORES/)

According to a study by the Americas Society organization, in the 2022 legislative elections, Latino electoral participation was 37.9%, while the national average was 46%. The lack of interest focuses, above all, on the younger population, between 18 and 29 years old, where only 14% voted.

For Mark López, director of Race and Ethnicity Research at the Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C., there are several important factors that could drive Latino voters to the polls this November. “Contact between candidates and Latino voters is important, as is knowing where they live. Key states like Nevada and Arizona will receive more attention from candidates and this will increase Hispanic turnout in those states,” he says.

Although both the Democratic and Republican Parties are investing more time and money in winning the Hispanic vote, especially in Latino media in the US, including the use of the Spanish language, the effort is still insufficient. Also in 2022, according to data from the Americas Society, Democrats spent 54 million dollars and Republicans almost 30 million dollars. But this represented just 2.5% of total media spending for Democrats and 1% for Republicans.

“Abstentionism can also be explained because Hispanics do not feel truly represented by any of the parties. In the case of Democrats – who normally count on the support of Latinos, but that percentage is decreasing – this reflects an inability to involve and nominate Hispanic candidates for elected positions. And the Republican Party has raised the tone of its anti-immigration and even discriminatory speech towards Latinos”, says Carbajal.

On the Democratic side, Biden has been trying to attract more Latino voters since the last election. In this campaign, messages in Spanish are increasingly appealing. (Photo: AP)

To this we must add political maneuvers, especially on the part of local republican authorities, which tend to change the characteristics of electoral districts and make it difficult for minorities to vote.

A Pew Research Center report also details how the Democratic Party has been losing the Hispanic vote. Over the past 20 years they have controlled between 65% and 70% of support, while Republicans have received 30%. In 2022, the numbers were 60% and 40%, respectively.

“The Democratic Party is rethinking its identity about the causes it should fight for. In general, the Hispanic vote tends to be more traditionalist and for many of them the Democrats are becoming too progressive. For some, topics such as abortion, sexual identity or gender make a lot of noise. Therefore, many Latinos are opting for Republicans for ideological and cultural reasons,” says Carbajal.

The Mexican analyst even considers that by 2024 Hispanic support for both parties could become more balanced.

In this regard, it is important to note that the Latino vote is also not homogeneous. The fact that historically they have voted more for Democrats does not mean that it is a unitary bloc.

“Latino voters have different opinions on issues like abortion or immigration. And in its demographic characteristics, there are Mexicans, Cubans, Dominicans, Salvadorans and many more. However, this diversity is not a new trend. In 2004, for example, 44% of Latinos voted for Republican George W. Bush,” recalls López.

“We have Mexican-American voters that even differ according to the states, whether they are in Arizona, Texas or Colorado. In Florida, which is a swing state, the Cuban-American vote and now the Venezuelan vote are very important and are more Republican,” adds Carbajal.

According to calculations by the Educational Fund of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), 17.5 million Hispanics are expected to participate this November, for a population that already exceeds 64 million in the country.

Given this, politicians decided to invest more and more in the Spanish language to win over more Latino voters and make them feel that their representation counts.

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Today, the Biden-Harris campaign is releasing a new Latino ad in English and Spanish. In “Fuerte,” Marine Corps veteran Cesar Carreon criticizes Trump for his attacks on women and their rights, making it clear that Biden will protect his daughters and their freedoms. pic.twitter.com/q403uD7HO5

– Fabiola Rodriguez (@fabiola5rod) May 3, 2024

A report by the organization The Hispanic Council indicates that 25% of all congressmen use Spanish in their communications. “In the House of Representatives, 50 congressmen are of Hispanic origin, while more than twice as many -113 deputies- speak Spanish. In the Senate there are only six Hispanics, but 47 senators use Spanish”, states the document, adding that Democrats are those who use the language most frequently: “More than 70% of Democratic senators use Spanish and in the House of Representatives already exceeds 43%.”

President Joe Biden’s campaign has also joined this trend and several ads in states with a strong Hispanic presence, such as Arizona, Texas or Florida, are broadcast in English and Spanish. One of them is a recent ad about abortion rights titled “Strong,” which was published on TV, radio and social media.

Source: Elcomercio