The risk of a new arms race posed by China’s new hypersonic missile

When it was learned that China had tested a new nuclear-capable hypersonic missile, some analysts said it was a turning point that took Washington by surprise. But what implications does it have? Jonathan Marcus, from the Institute for Strategy and Security at the University of Exeter (UK), offers his point of view.

Twice this year, the Chinese military launched a rocket into space that circled the planet before accelerating toward its target.

SIGHT: China Tested Hypersonic Missile In Orbit, Financial Times Says

On the first occasion, he failed to hit his target for roughly 40 km, according to people briefed with intelligence who spoke to him. Financial Times, the newspaper that first released the story.

While some American politicians and analysts were alarmed by China’s apparent progress, Beijing was quick to deny the reports, insisting that it was the test of a reusable spacecraft.

• The United States says it is “very concerned” about the development of Chinese hypersonic missiles
• What are hypersonic weapons and the competition between China, the United States and Russia to develop them first
• Hwasong-8: What about North Korea’s “hypersonic” missile?

China’s denial is “an act of concealment,” says Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-Proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, California, because the story has been confirmed by US officials.

Lewis Finds Claim That China Tested Orbital Bombing System “Technically plausible and strategically reasonable for Beijing.”

______________________________________

What are ICBMs and FOBs?

a ICBM It is a long-range projectile that leaves the Earth’s atmosphere and re-enters it, following a parabolic trajectory towards its target.

a orbital bombardment system (FOB) Fractional sends missiles through partial orbit around the Earth to strike targets from an unexpected direction.

______________________________________

Hypersonic weapons are being developed by powers around the world, like this one from Russia. (TASS).

Both the report of the Financial Times how China’s denial might be correct, says Aaron Stein, research director at the Foreign Policy Institute in Philadelphia, USA.

“A reusable spacecraft is a hypersonic glider. It just lands. A FOB system carried by some kind of glider would do much the same as a reusable space plane, so I think the actual differences between the two stories are marginal”.

In fact, in recent months, several senior US officials have hinted that China has achieved this kind of development.

FOBs are not new

The idea of ​​FOB systems was pursued by the Soviet Union during the Cold War and is now apparently being revived by China.

The goal is for a weapon to enter a partial orbit around the Earth to attack targets from an unexpected direction.

The US showed off this hypersonic cruise missile, the Boeing X-51, in 2010. (US AIR FORCE).

What China seems to have done is create a new system by combining FOB technology with a hypersonic glider It glides along the outer edge of the atmosphere, thus avoiding radar and missile defenses.

So that?

“Beijing fears that the United States will use a combination of modernized nuclear forces and anti-missile defenses to eliminate its nuclear potential,” Lewis says.

“If the United States attacked Beijing first, which is seen as an option, Alaska’s missile defense system could contain the small amount of China’s nuclear weapons that remain.”

Developing technology

All major nuclear players are developing hypersonic systems, but they see them differently, says Aaron Stein.

And these different points of view, he explains, they feed the paranoia of the others, and fuel the arms race.

The analyst believes that both Beijing and Moscow see hypersonic systems as a means to ensure the defeat of missile defenses.

Hypersonic cruise missiles are a form of projectiles that have a propulsion system that breaks the sound barrier several times. (US AIR FORCE).

But, on the contrary, the United States plans to use them to attack so-called “hard targets”, the nuclear command and control points, using conventional non-nuclear warheads.

Some proponents of America’s rapid nuclear modernization have viewed recent Chinese tests as “A Sputnik moment”, a reference to the surprise and alarm registered in the United States by the first orbital satellite that the Soviet Union launched in the late 1950s.

But some experts disagree and do not believe that this test from China creates a new threat.

James Acton, del Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dice que The United States has been vulnerable to a nuclear attack from China at least since the 1980s.

He believes that the programs of China, Russia and North Korea to defeat US missile defenses should lead Washington to reconsider whether treaties that impose limits on such defenses are, after all, in the interest of Americans.

Putin and his defense chiefs have seen hypersonic missile launches through live broadcasts. (Getty Images).

Lewis stresses that the important thing now is for the United States to draw the correct conclusions.

“I’m afraid this is much more like September 11, where, out of surprise and a mixture of fear and vulnerability, we embarked on a series of disastrous foreign policy decisions that made us much less safe, ”he says.

“In fact, one of the things we did was withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty or ABM, which is much more responsible for developing this system in China than anything else.”

The advance of the arms race

All potential adversaries of the United States seek to modernize and improve its nuclear weapons. However, China’s arsenal is still overshadowed by that of the United States.

Still, concerns about America’s missile defenses and conventional long-range precision strike systems push Beijing to develop a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal.

Hypersonic displacement vehicles reach high altitudes and then re-enter the atmosphere with erratic trajectories to the target location. (EPA).

North Korea is also looking to modernize and refine its nuclear capability, among other things, as Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment points out, to ensure additional leverage in future diplomacy.

“For a few years,” he explains, “they have demanded to be treated by the United States as equals and consider the development of increasingly advanced nuclear and missile capabilities as a way to earn that respect.”

It all contributes to a growing headache for President Joe Biden’s administration.

The collapse of much of the gun control agreements left by the Cold War does not help. Neither did Washington’s growing tensions with Moscow and Beijing.

In Ankit Panda’s view, the most significant thing the United States could do to halt and halt the ongoing arms race is discuss the limits that there should be on strategic missile defenses, as was done during the Cold War.

“Putting missile defense on the table,” he says, “would allow Washington to obtain significant concessions from Russia and China. Furthermore, it would discourage everyone from seeking costly, complicated and dangerous means of launching nuclear weapons ”.

________________________________

• They ate at the Salt Bae restaurant and the service alone cost thousands of dollars
• Nikolas Cruz: Perpetrator of Parkland School Massacre Pleads Guilty to All Charges
• Before she died, teacher Mary Kay Letourneau felt remorse for her relationship with her 12-year-old student
• Mexico: mother would have embalmed her daughter and put it as a mannequin in her store
• They find the belongings of the missing boyfriend of Gabby Petito, the young woman who was murdered in the United States.
• They release the “murderer with red hair”, who at age 13 abused and killed a 4-year-old boy

.