The uncertainty with which Chile reaches the first elections in 16 years without Piñera and Bachelet (and what are the possible scenarios)

It is the most uncertain presidential election in the last three decades.

Chile He goes to the polls this Sunday to elect his next president – and renew a large part of Parliament – in the midst of a highly polarized scenario, where surprises are not ruled out.

According to various forecasts, of the seven presidential competitors in the race, none surpasses the 30% adhesionand in the process there have been a high number of undecided, who do not identify with any of the candidates.

In addition, the volatility in the endorsements has been a trend in recent months, positioning each of them at different levels of voting intention, something that varies from week to week.

“From 1989 to date, in Chile we always knew who the next president was going to be two years in advance. Now, the uncertainty is total ”, The doctor in political philosophy and professor at the Adolfo Ibáñez University explains to BBC Mundo, Cristóbal Bellolio.

“Citizens are very permeable and influenced by what is happening every day. And the truth is that in recent months we have had leading candidates that last a couple of weeks and fall “, toGreek.

A similar opinion is held by the political scientist Kenneth Bunker.

“Everything is possible; it is a very open election. There is a constant change in the order of preferences that we did not see before. There are many things that are happening, which forces candidates to change positions and with that force voters to they do it too, “he tells BBC Mundo.

What factors explain this high level of uncertainty and what are the possible scenarios that can be configured after the results?

Distrust in surveys

The uncertainty is fueled by the distrust of polls, a phenomenon that affects much of the world.

The imprecision of its results has made it increasingly difficult to accurately gauge who citizens will vote for.

A clear example is what happened in the presidential primary elections, conducted in Chile in July of this year, when polls indicated, for months, that the two big favorites were Daniel Jadue, by the left block, and Joaquin Lavin, on the right.

But none of them succeeded. They imposed themselves Gabriel Boric, of the Broad Front, and Sebastian Sichel, an independent candidate supported by the center-right.

According to experts, the accuracy of public studies has been affected by various factors, including voluntary voting, its methodological nature (telephone and online surveys have proliferated to the detriment of face-to-face ones), and the same liquidity of preferences electoral.

Decline of traditional parties

These elections have another peculiarity: they are the first after the social outbreak, which began in October 2019, and which shook Chile, questioning the political and economic system that had prevailed since the return to democracy in 1990, and installing demands that had been redressed in the debate, such as the reform of the security systems. pensions, health and education.

Somehow, that consolidated new political forces who have come to shake the Chilean political scene and inject a good deal of uncertainty into these elections.

According to various forecasts of electoral experts, two of the candidates who are likely to prevail in the elections are José Antonio Kast and Boric, who do not belong to the traditional parties, but to the radical right, the first, and the Broad Front, the second.

This is an unthinkable scenario a few years ago, considering that the center-left and the center-right alternated the power of this South American country during the last 16 years, with two presidential terms led by Michelle bachelet (2006-2010 and 2014-2018), and two others by Sebastian Piñera (2010-2014 and 2018 to date).

Now, the candidates representing those forces –Yasna Provoste, in the center left, and Sichel, on the center-right – have failed to monopolize preferences.

“Today we are facing a complete collapse of the partisan political scaffolding to which we were accustomed in Chile,” says Bellolio.

The political scientist indicates that the preference for traditional parties has declined sharply in recent years.

“In 1999, for example, the two presidential candidates from traditional parties, Ricardo Lagos and Joaquín Lavin, together added 98% of the votes. That is, there was no room for third forces, very similar to what happens in the United States. Then, in the last presidential election in 2017, between Sebastián Piñera and Alejandro Guillier, the sum of their votes began to decline, although they also reached 60% of the preferences. “

Now, however, the incredible thing is that perhaps the two representatives of those coalitions, Sichel and Provoste, do not even reach the second round “, he points out.

“I think the social outburst ended by bury the two political cultures of the transition, the center left and the center right, which have never been renewed much and are the ones that seem to be succumbing, “says Bellolio.

For the researcher at the Center for Public Studies (CEP), Carmen Le FoulonThis was a process that came from before and that, in fact, is part of the causes of social protests.

“Identification by political party has been progressively lost and, consequently, the vote is no longer anchored in party identifications; it is not a long-term, predictable vote,” he tells BBC Mundo.

This has opened the door to more radical options, with a center It appears weakened.

Possibles scenarios

Due to the enormous uncertainty and the errors in the polls, today it is difficult to predict who will lead these elections.

The first thing to keep in mind is that it is most likely that this Sunday there will not be a single winnerIn other words, that none of the candidates achieves a majority —50% +1 of the votes — to become president immediately.

One factor that will be important to watch is how many people will vote (and who will). This is one of the questions that causes the most headaches for Chilean electoral experts because, since the voluntary vote In 2012, most of the elections —both presidential, municipal and others— have been characterized by a low number of voters.

In the Second round—Which would be held on Sunday, December 19—, the two options that have obtained the most votes in this first round will compete.

One of the scenarios most mentioned by analysts consulted by BBC Mundo, points out that Boric y Kast they will be the ones who get the most votes.

Kast, who is not the candidate of the official bloc “Chile Podemos Más”, but the leader of the Republican Party —Which is further to the right of this coalition—, it would have managed to double its support by taking votes from Sebastián Sichel under the promise of a government that will fight insecurity, drug trafficking and migration with a heavy hand, among other things.

“The right has a floor of 40% support generally. And of that 40%, around 30% would be obtained by Kast. Many people are supporting him because he proposes order,” indicates Bunker, who leads Tres Quintos, a site of political analysis and electoral information.

Another scenario bet they are Boric and Yasna Provoste, from the center-left, who compete in the second round.

This would mean a strong blow to the government of Sebastián Piñera and his coalition.

“Provoste comes from a political coalition that is very large, much larger than Kast’s. Many candidates around Chile are campaigning with Provoste and, even though she does not score much in the polls, there can be a consistent vote that is see that day, “clarifies Bunker.

On the other hand, although the polls have positioned Kast as a favorite, in the last presidential debate, held on Monday, November 15, he was the flank of criticism, while Sichel’s performance was widely celebrated in his sector.

According to experts, this could (once again) change voters’ preferences. Thus, another possible scenario opens: that Sichel passes to the second round (and not Kast), and that it is he who competes with Boric or, eventually, Yasna Provoste.

The candidates who would have fewer options would be the progressive Marco Enriquez-Ominami, Eduardo Artés (from the radical left) and Franco Parisi, who lives in the United States and has not campaigned in person in Chile or participated in presidential debates.

If any of them go to the second round, it would be a very surprising result.

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