Ortega begins fifth term: how does the former revolutionary consolidate his dictatorship in Nicaragua?

Daniel Ortega He has just started his fifth term – and fourth in a row – clinging to a single possibility: to govern Nicaragua without legitimacy. Isolated and sanctioned, the former Sandinista leader will put on the presidential sash on Monday despite international rejection and ignoring the complaints of repression, persecution, electoral fraud and human rights violations that fall on him and his vice president and wife Rosario Murillo.

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As proof of disapproval of your government, Ortega, 76, assumes in a ceremony that only his closest allies attend, because a large part of the international community is unaware of the electoral process in which the leftist president was re-elected and in which seven opponents were imprisoned shortly before the elections. This same Monday, 10 new sanctions and pressures against the regime came from the United States and the European Union.

“Today Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo are consummating a one-party dictatorship in NicaraguaThey are practically telling not only Nicaraguans but the international community that the imposition of sanctions and criticism against them do not matter much. The important thing for them is to continue to hold power and have Nicaraguans in repression and under a dictatorial regime that cancels all public freedoms“The Nicaraguan journalist tells El Comercio Maynor salazar.

Daniel Zovatto, regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), points out that this is “a sad day for democracy in Latin America because another dictatorship is being consolidated in the region. It’s an illegitimate and bloodstained takeover”.

The Ortega regime jailed its main political rivals before the presidential elections. (Photo: EFE)

He explains that what is happening in Nicaragua is no exception, since Central America and the northern triangle area are seeing a worrying deterioration of democracy. “What of Nicaragua It is even more serious because it no longer qualifies only as a hybrid regime, as an illiberal democracy or as an authoritarian drift, but rather is the consolidation of a family and dynastic dictatorship product of an electoral farce”, He adds.

Experts agree that the outlook is uncertain. Ortega outlined last year the possibility of initiating a dialogue, but it is not yet clear with whom. Most of the opposition is in exile, others are keeping a low profile for fear of reprisals and a good part is in prison.

“The climate is one of uncertainty What is clear is that Ortega does not intend to abandon power, especially now that the municipal elections are coming and also taking into account the rapprochement it has had with China and Russia”, Says Salazar.

Controversial endorsements

The breakdown of the regime Ortega with western democracies it has become quite evident. Although he points out that international pressure alone is not enough to twist the arm of these types of regimes, Zovatto highlights the importance of countries acting against Ortega and strengthening their position.

Several days of protests were registered in Nicaragua. (Photo: AFP)

He points out that from the international community what must be done is to continue condemning the Ortega and Murillo regime, denouncing their human rights violations, demanding that the rule of law be restored, that the more than 160 political prisoners and the main opposition leaders who are in jail or under house arrest be released. The level of international isolation must also be deepened and deepened, linking it with individual sanctions and other types of economic punishments. Within the OAS, progress must be made in the process of applying Articles 20 and 21 of the Democratic Charter to suspend Nicaragua as a member country of the OAS.

“There are many elements that the international community has already been executing, but they have to be strengthened, especially at the regional level. Latin America has to speak with one voice, it cannot be that there are different positions in front of these dictatorships, as is the case of Mexico and Argentina, which say they condemn human rights violations, but cannot condemn the regime or the electoral farce because that would be meddling in internal affairs. That is inadmissible”Says Zovatto.

He adds that Ortega has been isolated from the democratic community, but is betting heavily with China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, of which he has explicit support. In turn, it is helped by the indifference of countries like Mexico or Argentina, which say they prefer not to interfere.

Archive image. A man walks past a mural showing Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega before the swearing-in ceremony after being re-elected for a fourth consecutive term, in Managua, Nicaragua. January 7, 2022. REUTERS / Maynor Valenzuela

The president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, said this Monday that he sent a representative of his government to the investiture of Ortega with the argument that the foreign policy of his country is governed by respect for the self-determination of the peoples.

Salazar points out that the fact that Ortega is now more inclined to China, Russia and Iran means that Ortega is not interested in negotiating his exit from power or in giving up quotas of it. “He is emboldened because he considers that he has the support of these countries and that by being on that side he will not suffer much economic impact from the issue of sanctions.”.

No near solution

But while international pressure is necessary in the search for change, it is a consensus that the greatest efforts should be born within Nicaragua.

“Comparative experience shows that to combat dictatorships with this level of determination, such as the one they have Ortega and Murillo to assassinate, to put prisoners, to make an electoral farce in order to remain in power, it is necessary to have actions within the country. I know this is very difficult because there is repression, but Comparative history shows us that these regimes do not fall solely because of international action.. The way out is to reopen a negotiation process to call new elections with guarantees, with international observers to seek a peaceful, electoral and democratic solution.”Adds Zovatto.

Ortega and Murillo. (Photo: Oswaldo Rivas / Reuters)

Remember that Ortega’s goal is to perpetuate himself in power with a family dynasty. “If he manages to stay in power for the next five years, what we will most likely see will be a gradual and progressive transfer of power from Daniel Ortega to Rosario Murillo to try to do precisely what Ortega fought against in 1979, which was to put an end to another dynastic dictatorship such as that of the Somozas. That is the irony of Nicaragua ”.

Adding up his years in power, Ortega has already been in office longer than the Somoza dictatorship that he himself overthrew.

Another aspect that makes it difficult to stop Ortega is that the opposition is weakened and it is not known how the regime will respond to increased pressure.

“In Nicaragua there is no opposition because it is fragmented due to incarceration and exile. The rest of the countries can say that they do not recognize the Ortega government and that of the opposition they do. Here an election was held without candidates, it was a complete fraud. And above all, this is not a problem that the international community can solve. It has already been shown that sanctions, although they have an impact, can also make the regime become more radical and imprison everyone. It would be necessary to evaluate what it is that Ortega intends to give up in order to achieve an exchange rate. Change in Nicaragua is a long roador, ”says Salazar.

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