Falling gas consumption will see French stockpiles ‘drain a bit’

There have never been such full gas reserves in France … Up to the point that they will have to be “slightly” devastated in the coming weeks. And this is to comply with the usual “technical restrictions” in these infrastructures, the manager of the GRTgaz gas transmission network said on Wednesday.

The storage facility is “historically well filled” with a level that reached 80% capacity on Sunday, compared to an average of 55% over the past six years at the same time, the manager indicated in his “gas forecast” update for the winter. .

Studied since summer like milk on fire, these storages have been “crucial” for the winter to pass due to fears of Russian gas drying up since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Need to “breathe”

Oddly enough, the level of stocks is such that they now need to “breathe”, that is, to have outgoing and incoming movement. “So we will have to empty them a bit,” sums up Thierry Obli, CEO of GRTgaz. Their level reaches 106 TWh, i.e. almost a quarter of the gas consumed in France in 2021 (474 ​​TWh).

“The technical limitations of French storage facilities require them to (…) +breathe+ in order to maintain their performance in the coming winters. Thus, a significant drop in filling levels should be expected in the coming weeks to meet this limit,” GRTgaz explains in its note. The stock could then drop to levels close to 60%, “a significant drop, but it happens every year,” according to Thierry Oublier.

While Russian gas accounted for 17% of France’s pre-conflict gas consumption, the country had to resort to pipeline supplies of Norwegian gas and ship-borne liquefied natural gas in 2022 to fill its reserves to nearly 100% before winter and participate in supplies Europe, especially Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas.

With these “steady supplies”, French stocks were also saved by “mild temperatures until mid-November” which delayed turning on the heating and sobriety efforts which led to a national “consumption drop”. (-12.8% in weather-adjusted data between August 1 and January 15).

Under these conditions, GRTgaz considers it “very unlikely” that there will be a “risk of a shortage of gas volumes” before the end of the winter in France.