The exchange rate: Why has the dollar remained between S / 3.95 and S / 3.99 in recent days?

The dollar closed stable on Wednesday in the local exchange market on a day in which the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) intervened, while investors remained cautious after recent statements by members of the Executive Branch about nationalizing Camisea gas. At the end of the day, the price of the dollar stood at S / 3.9880 in the interbank market, a level similar to that registered on Tuesday, according to BCR data.

“This relative calm or stability has a lot to do with the decisions made by the President of the Nation when removing his Cabinet of Ministers. This time we want to comment on the possibilities of the future evolution of the exchange rate in the country “, Matías Maciel comments, CoFounder de Rextie.

He adds that in the last time reference was made, when the dollar it was trading close to S / 4.15, “To which the uncertainty that was perceived at that time added about 35 cents approximately. In other words, if that level of economic and / or political uncertainty did not exist, the dollar it could be worth about S / 3.80. That level, pennies more or pennies less, should be the price of the dollar in Peru, in conditions of greater political and economic stability “, he maintains.

He adds that for there to be a true sense of stability in the country, a coordinated action between the Executive and the Legislative Power. “Actions related to enacting laws that significantly modify the balances of power in a democracy, as well as the possibility that Trust is not granted to the new Ministerial Cabinet, are factors that do not allow generating a feeling of greater stability / governability”Maciel points out.

“This is what does not allow the exchange rate to fall to levels even closer to the mentioned level of S / 3.80. On the other hand, if this climate of conflict is accentuated, the dollar it can not only not go down, but resume its upward trend “, ends.