Retreats: odds of success, calendar… what you need to know about left-wing RIPs

This is another decision expected this Friday that crystallizes the hopes of unions and demonstrators. The Constitutional Council must decide on the validity of the Common Initiative Referendum (RIU) blocking the retirement age at 62. A second RIP with the same goal, but more “safe” according to its authors, was also filed on Thursday evening. The Elders have one month to decide the last one. We sum up.

What do the RIPs, filed by the Left, say?

On March 20, the first RIP was introduced to the Constitutional Council by 252 parliamentarians from the left and from Lyot, consisting of centrist deputies. The bill introduced by this RIP No. 1 aims to “state that the statutory retirement age cannot be set higher than 62 years,” writes the website of the Constitutional Council. The wise men will decide on his future this Friday at 18:00.

Anticipating a “no,” left-wing MPs introduced a second RIP on Thursday, “seeking to ban the statutory retirement age above 62.” “This is the same text” as the first RIP, supplemented by a second article “which creates an element of reform: tax revenues linked to capital resources to provide funding for pay-as-you-go pensions.” Idea? Overcoming the “possible weakness” of the first request was explained by the president of the Socialist group, Patrick Kanner. Verdict within a month.

What should the Constitutional Council check?

After receiving the RIP, the institution must check several points, in particular, the compliance of the bill with certain conditions laid down in the Constitution. Therefore, it should refer to “the organization of public authorities” or “reforms relating to economic, social or environmental policy”. The government sent its written “remarks” to the Council: according to them, RIP No. 1 does not carry any “reform”. The authors of the bill, challenging these arguments, filed a second RIP as a precautionary measure, which clearly creates, they emphasize, an “element of reform.”

Another condition is that RIP cannot “target the repeal of legislation promulgated less than a year ago.” This modality is respected: the government is waiting for the decision of the elders on the compliance of the pension reform this Friday in order to promulgate the law. However, two RIPs were submitted prior to this date. Elders must also ensure that nothing in this text is contrary to the Constitution.

What happens when the traffic light is green?

If the RIP is given the green light, a nine-month rally of the 4.8 million citizen supporters needed – one tenth of the voters – will begin. “This is a figure that does not seem impossible in the case of pensions, but it remains disproportionate. Especially when we observe mechanisms abroad: in Italy, 500,000 signatures are needed,” recalled Parisian Laureline Fontaine, professor of public law at the Sorbonne, at the end of March. According to an Odoxa poll published on Thursday in Le Figaro, between 9 and 18 million French people will sign up for this referendum.

However, even if elected officials receive these signatures, there is no guarantee that this RIP will continue: if the government decides to put the bill on the agenda in the National Assembly and the Senate within six months, the referendum procedure is terminated. And this, despite the 4.8 million votes in favor of his outfit, which managed to collect.