Finland close to joining NATO and putting Russia in check: how would the power struggle in Europe turn out?

Every time the Russian invasion was questioned UkraineMoscow replied that it was in response to the advance of the NATO. The threat of having the Western coalition so close to him was intolerable. Then it became clear that it was just an excuse, however, today the situation changes completely with the announcement of Finland. the neighbor of Russia has expressed its desire to joinWithout delay” to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

It was Russia itself that pushed the Finns to choose a side. After the WWII, Helsinki was neutral and, for decades, only 30% of the population wanted to join the coalition led by USA and created under the shadow of the Cold War. The invasion to Ukraine and the massacres of civilians would have convinced them: according to the BBC, in 2021, 40% were opposed, a figure that currently borders on 16%; likewise, sympathy for the idea doubled, reaching 62% approval.

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“Being a member of NATO would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of the NATO, Finland it would also strengthen the Alliance as a whole. Finland must be a candidate for membership without delay”, was read in a statement published this Thursday by the prime minister, Sanna Marin, and the president Sauli Niinisto.

If the accession were to materialize, more than eight decades of neutrality of the Nordic country would end. Apparently, Finland finds no other way to protect its nearly 1,400-kilometre border with Russia.

In parallel, Moscow shouted to the sky. His chancellery replied: “Russia will be forced to adopt both military-technical and other response measures in order to counteract the threats that have arisen for its national security”.

The decision, seen from the kremlinviolates the Paris Peace Agreement of 1947 and the one signed by both countries in 1992. Both made it clear that the possibility of entering an alliance or lending their territory is not allowed “for military aggression against the other party”.

“The goal of NATO […] it is clear: continue its expansion towards the borders of Russia, create a new flank of military threat to our country”, notes Moscow.

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Game of Thrones

How will Europe change if Finland joins NATO? “If we remember that it is a country with full rights in the European Union, there would be no change at that level.“, He says Enrique Banús, director of the Institute of European Studies of the University of Piura. “Yes there will be in defense, of course. The northern flank of the alliance will be strengthened now that troops are allowed to station on its territory”.

But Banús asks to take things easy. “Russia has already reacted with anger and threats, but we do not know what will happen. Know how you will react Moscow remains a mystery”. And not only because of the non-existent transparency in the processes of the kremlinbut also because what was anticipated has not happened.

For example, it was expected and feared that on May 9 -a great event for Vladimir Putin– Russia announced forceful measures, as they entered a new phase of the war. But it was not like that. “Putin’s speech was very repetitive, very similar to the previous one. And there was surprise: why hasn’t he given a new twist to the invasion? Maybe because he can’t. We do not know”.

“But, from what we are seeing, I don’t think a new one will happen. winter war. It is true that all the information that is handled cannot be contrasted, but everything indicates that Russia does not have the capacity to unleash a war on another front.”.

“We know very little, so we only have to wait for the end of the war to find out what happened”.

A little history

For “El País”, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “recalls the clashes between the Red Army and the Finnish forces in the last century, in which Helsinki did not give in to Stalin’s authoritarianism and managed to preserve its sovereignty despite losing 10% of its territory”.

Indeed, recalls the AFP agency, before peace and neutrality, Finland “was a Russian province (1809-1917) and was also invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939 [durante la llamada Guerra de Invierno]”. Much earlier, war conflicts were also recorded. In fact, the fortress of the border town lappeenranta -located just 20 kilometers from Russian territory- was built in 1775 by the Russians, “after a bloody battle in which hundreds of Finns were killed”.

Later would come WWII and the invasion referred to in the previous paragraph. After the Cold War -time in which Moscow forced him to be neutral-, Finland adds to the European Union.

In parallel, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) began to gain prestige and add countries to its ranks. Founded on April 4, 1949 in Washington, it aligned the most powerful countries in the West. It was only in 1999 that former communist nations such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic; while, in March 2004, they joined Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia Y Lithuania. Later, he would welcome Albanian Y Croatia and recently, Montenegrin Y North Macedonia. The arrival of Finland serves to increase the fence that limits Russia.

Source: Elcomercio

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