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Federico Gutiérrez is running for the presidency of Colombia with the support of the “Conservative Party, La U, Mira, the majority of congressmen from Cambio Radical, the Democratic Center and the Liberal Party”, and yet the right-wing man proclaims himself the people’s candidate. Today, his arrival in the second round -where he would face the favorite Gustavo Petro- seems certain, although the support of the establishment would already be taking its toll on him for the elections of the May 29.
“In political psychology, the concept of cognitive dissonance is used to explain the moment in which human beings notice when a person says one thing, but acts in another“, Explain Carlos Arias, consultant and professor of the master’s program in Political Communication at the Externado University of Colombia. “Gutiérrez says that he is the people’s candidate and generates a dissonance that is noticed by a certain part of the voters who believe that they are being lied to. His relationship with the message ends up being inversely proportional: the greater the dissonance, the less intention to vote”.
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But it is not the only thing that makes Gutiérrez -former mayor of Medellin– move away from a “real chance of being president”. The support of the current president, Ivan Dukeand its predecessor, Alvaro Uribe, has also influenced its drop in preferences. Arias notes, for example, that Duque holds the record for being the Colombian president with the worst image in the last 50 yearsdespite a brief rebound during the first lockdowns due to the coronavirus. A similar situation is experienced by Uribe, who long ago lost the “teflon” that prevented problems “they will stick”. “Today Uribe is highly criticized. Young people do not remember it positively and associate managing it with the negative, with human rights violations”.
The figures attest to what the specialist tells. According to a study of Latin American Strategic Center for GeopoliticsDuke “records a negative image of 83%”. While 14% of Colombians think that Uribe should continue in politics, unlike 41% who consider that “should retire” and 30% who say that “I should go to jail”.
Arias narrows it down: “This type of association and imprint on the public image of the current and former president are the most negative issues in the opinion of Gutiérrez.”.
At the moment, according to a report by “El País”, Petro is ahead with 38.8% of the voting intention, followed by Gutiérrez, with 24.6%, and Rodolfo Hernández, 12.5%.
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The weight of the ‘establishment’
Perhaps the easiest way to confirm that Gutiérrez’s bet is developed under the umbrella of the ‘establishment’, is from his first campaign videos. Arias recalls that the spots were a carbon copy of those used by Duque and that “People are not stupid”.
Trip or boycott? The Colombian specialist notes that it was a strategic error that ended with the videos and photos deleted. For him, the problem could originate from those around the candidate. Makes sense: “Most politicians surround themselves with bells and whistles, with advisers who congratulate them and who, mistakenly, have wrong readings of the country. And being surrounded by power, they only hear applause”.
It would be difficult, in any case, to disassociate Gutiérrez from the ruling class. Finally, Arias notes, he is Antioquiaplace where Uribe laid his foundations and of which he was governor. “The political structure of Duque, despite being from Bogotá, is also there. So, despite the fact that the candidate uses more colloquial language, he is understood as the candidate of the establishment”.
The results of this perception can already be seen in statistical studies. “When comparing all the studies on the matter in Colombia, it is clear to me that there will be a second round. However, with only a few days to go before the elections, what is seen is that Gutiérrez is falling”, declares the specialist.
Are your aspirations complicated?
For his doctorate in political psychology at the Catholic University of Colombia, Arias studies the relationship of conversations in social networks -specifically Twitter– and how trends impact Colombian elections. “Gutierrez is falling precipitously. I am not referring to his name in the searches, but to all the elements that surround his campaign. Today people look for candidates Rodolfo Hernandez Y Gustavo Petro or topics related to them”.
“That the conversation around Gutiérrez has dropped is not a minor fact: those candidates who, in the last 25 days before the election, raise their conversation, increase or maintain the intention to vote that is reflected in the polls. They never lower it”, he notes.
And adds:
“While the candidates who lower their conversation in the same period, end up losing between two to five percentage points in the intention to vote in the polls”.
Even so, Arias maintains his initial idea: the second round should be between Petro and Gutiérrez. The result of that confrontation, however, is still a gamble.
Source: Elcomercio
