The left-wing ex-head of state Lula or the far-right outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro. After a campaign at loggerheads and a tighter-than-expected first round, Brazil is electing its next president this Sunday. The Latin American country of continental dimensions has been preparing for this deadline since March 2021, when the Supreme Court allowed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to make a come-back politics by overturning the controversial convictions that had sent him to prison for 18 months for corruption.
Lula, who turned 77 on Thursday, may have been the poll favorite for months, but the gap has narrowed with Bolsonaro, 67, who scored better than expected in the first round (43% to 48 %). Two days before the vote, analysts do not exclude that the sixth presidential campaign of the inoxidable founder of the Workers’ Party (PT) will fail at the post.
“This race will end on the wire”
According to the latest poll Thursday from the benchmark institute Datafolha, the former trade unionist is credited with 53% of the votes cast, against 47% for Bolsonaro. “This race is going to end on the wire,” predicts Brian Winter, editor of Americas Quarterly, “every vote is going to count, I wouldn’t bet on the outcome.”
Bolsonaro benefited from a dynamic after this reassuring first round for him. Its allies also made strong progress in the gubernatorial and legislative elections which took place alongside the first round of the presidential election on 2 October.
And whatever the name of the new president elected for four years, he will have to govern with a more powerful radical right. But Bolsonaro appears to have doubted his victory in recent days, reigniting his attacks on Brazil’s “fraudulent” electoral system that he had muted. He will only accept the election result “if nothing abnormal happens”, he warned recently.
A remake of the assault on the Capitol?
Bolsonaro has also just launched an offensive on alleged irregularities in the broadcasting of electoral propaganda on the radio which would have harmed his campaign, deprived according to him of the broadcasting of some 150,000 spots. But the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on Wednesday rejected its request for an investigation.
In this context, many fear a Brazilian remake of the assault on the Capitol in January 2021 by sympathizers of the defeated US President Donald Trump, model of Jair Bolsonaro. But analysts believe that Bolsonaro lacks the support of the army and institutions to make a real coup if he loses.
However, he can try, especially since he can count on a base of supporters ready for anything. And, “as we have seen in the United States, this leaves scars for the country”, assures Brian Winter. Still, a crowd of Brazilians will vote especially on Sunday for the candidate they hate the least.
Source: 20minutes
I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.
