Why does Ukraine insist that Russia is the real culprit for the missile that fell in Poland?

During the last few days, once again, the conflict between Russia Y Ukraine it was about to escalate, raising fears that it would reach levels similar to those of a new world conflagration.

This concern arose after a missile impacted on Tuesday the 15th in the Polish town of przewodownear the border with Ukrainekilling two people.

LOOK: Russia launches new wave of attacks against several cities in Ukraine, including the capital kyiv

Investigations have revealed, so far, that it was most likely a missile fired “by mistake” by Ukrainian forces trying to repel the massive bombardment launched by Russia over their territory that same afternoon. However, at first, his fingers pointed to Moscow.

The place where the missile fell in Poland. (AFP).

After the explosion, international alarms went off. Poland is a member country of the NATO and, according to the rules of this military alliance, the rest of the members may respond to a direct attack against one of them.

The Polish government, led by Andrzej Duda, convened a National Security Council, put the Army on alert and summoned the Russian ambassador in Warsaw to give “immediate detailed explanations”.

On the other side of the world, in Bali, Indonesia, where the G20 summit was being held, the leaders of the United States, Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom (who make up the so-called G7) met “of emergency” with their counterparts from Spain, the Netherlands and representatives of the European Union to address the situation.

The truth is that the first versions did not help to clear up the doubts. The Polish government initially reported that the projectile was “Russian-made,” prompting both the Pentagon and the NATO or the European Commission will condemn the event.

Later that same day, President Doubt he would say there was “unequivocal proof” of who fired the missile, though he reaffirmed that it was “probably Russian-made.”

Since Moscow they pointed out that these statements were unsubstantiated and dangerous. Doubtin another statement, urged “all Poles to remain calm in the face of this tragedy” and to “exercise restraint and caution.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda said there was “no unequivocal proof” of who fired the missile, though he reaffirmed that it was “probably Russian-made.” (MATEUSZ SLODKOWSKI/)

It’s Russia’s fault

On Wednesday the 16th, in two separate pronouncements, both the president Doubt as the Secretary General of the NATOJens Stoltenberg, indicated that the information collected by Warsaw indicated that the missile was most likely launched accidentally by Ukrainian forces.

“It was an S-300 missile made in the Soviet Union, an old projectile, and there is no evidence that it was launched by the Russian side”accurate Doubt. “It is very likely that it was launched by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses and that, unfortunately, it fell on Polish territory”.

Stoltenberg, for his part, pointed out that the investigations that are still ongoing indicated that the explosion in przewodow it was “probably caused by Ukrainian defenses trying to defend their territory.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday that information gathered by Warsaw suggested the missile was most likely launched by Ukrainian forces.

Hours later, US President Joe Biden considered it “unlikely” that the missile was fired by Russia. The White House issued a statement stating that it had not “seen anything to contradict” the Polish version.

Since kyivnevertheless, Volodymyr Zelensky It was contrary to this version. “I have no doubt that it was not our missile. I think it’s a Russian missile, based on our military reports.”said the Ukrainian ruler.

Zelensky’s pronouncement was also in line with what Stoltenberg added in his statements. “Let me be clear: this is not the fault of Ukraine (…) Russia bears ultimate responsibility as he continues his illegal war against Ukraine”he pointed.

This Thursday the 17th, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, spoke in the same vein as the leader of the NATO. “Regardless of the conclusion of this investigation, we already know who is ultimately responsible: Russia”indicated the head of US diplomacy.

The crater left by the missile in Przewodów, Poland. (Zet Radio).

“Two possibilities occur to me. Probably the Ukrainians sincerely think that the missile was fired by Russia. The other possibility is that they do not want to give Russia any propaganda point by pretending that the missile was theirs.”points to Trade international analyst Roberto Heimovits.

It should be noted that the first scenario proposed by Heimovits would give more meaning to the statement by the secretary of the Ukrainian National Defense and Security Council, Oleksiy Danilov, who assured on his Twitter account that they are “ready to deliver evidence of the Russian trace that we have (of the missile )”.

“We await the information from our partners on the basis of which it was concluded that it is an anti-aircraft defense missile,” added.

We advocate for a joint examination of the incident with the missile’s landing in Poland. We are ready to hand over evidence of the Russian trace that we have. We are expecting information from our partners, based on which a conclusion was made that it’s a ???????? air defense missile.

— Oleksiy Danilov (@OleksiyDanilov) November 16, 2022

As of this writing, neither Danilov nor any other kyiv official has released the alleged evidence mentioned.

NATO’s role

Should it be determined that Russia was ultimately, directly or indirectly, responsible for the shooting, this could be considered an attack against a member of the transatlantic alliance. This would open the possibility of activating Article 5 of NATO, which indicates that any “armed attack” against a member is considered an aggression against all members.

“Each one of the members, in exercise of the right of individual or collective legitimate defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, shall assist the party or parties attacked by immediately taking, individually and in concert with the other parties, the actions it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic area.”specifies the statute.

But, Is there a real chance that NATO will declare war on Russia because of this event? “I do not think so. That would be a very dangerous escalation for a single missile, even if it has taken the tragic toll of two human lives. If the missile were ultimately determined to be Russian, the NATO would react gradually, for example by increasing its arms assistance to Ukraine. But I think she still wouldn’t get directly involved.”says Heimovits.

Stoltenberg and Biden spoke by phone after the explosion in Poland. (GABRIEL BOUYS / AFP /)

Western support has been decisive for the Ukrainian forces to resist the Russian siege during these almost 9 months. This would be reflected with the withdrawal carried out by the forces of Moscow of a vast territory to the east of Ukraine during the last weeks.

“Increase the quantity and quality of weapons that the NATO send to Ukraine it would raise the number of Russian dead and wounded, as well as the loss of materiel. That would bring the end of the war closer because it would increase criticism within Russia to this war adventure of putin. could lead to Russia to negotiate”considers the expert.

“Russophobia”

In Moscowmeanwhile, see the accusations as a Polish and Ukrainian effort to generate a “direct confrontation” Come in Russia and the NATOas pointed out to the UN Security Council by the Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia.

For the diplomat, Poland’s initial indication of the origin of the missile would respond to a “Russophobic attitude” that only changed when photographs appeared “which left no doubt that it was Ukrainian air defense missiles that crossed into Poland”.

The Russian ambassador to the United Nations, Vasili Nebenzia, assured that Poland and Ukraine would be seeking a “direct confrontation” between Russia and NATO. (TIMOTHY A. CLARY /)

This same term had been used a day earlier by the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, who pointed out that several countries had made “unsubstantiated statements” on Russia’s participation in “another frantic hysterical Russophobic reaction, having no idea what had happened”.

The truth is that this latest episode has already caused various members of the NATO call for further strengthening of your air borders. Germany, for example, offered Poland on Wednesday the 16th to reinforce its airspace with German warships. Berlin is also studying together with the Netherlands to extend the deployment period of the Patriot anti-missile system in Slovakia, planned to operate until mid-2023, until at least 2024.

It is a show of solidarity towards Poland, which is an important ally for Germany. On the other hand, it also responds to own interests. Let us not forget that Poland is among Ukraine and Germany, the more protected the Poles are, the less likely it is that any Russian missile will approach German territory.”says Heimovits.

Source: Elcomercio