“If it had been a mistake by Islamic Jihad, just a barrage of rockets could have caused the hospital tragedy in Gaza”

A strong explosion in a hospital Link killed almost 500 Palestinians on Tuesday, according to the Ministry of Health in the enclave governed by the Islamic movement Hamas. Palestinians accuse Israel of carrying out a bombing, while the Israeli army blames the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group for the failed rocket launch that landed at the medical center. About this topic and its implications we spoke with Andrés Gómez de la Torre, an analyst specialized in Defense issues and former director of the National Intelligence School.

TO LOOK: What is known about the attack on a Gaza hospital that left almost 500 people dead; Was it Israel or the Palestinians?

— For Israel, it is clear that an Islamic Jihad projectile was the one that hit the hospital in Gaza. A rocket like those normally fired by Palestinians can kill 500 people; Why don’t the same rockets that hit Israel cause this level of damage?

A single rocket could not cause what happened at the hospital. Link. The rockets you have Hamas and the Islamic Jihadwhich can be smuggled into Gaza or manufactured by them like Qassam, would not have the capacity to cause very great damage, so it would be necessary to specify very well the level of damage left at the impact site. For them to cause this level of damage in terms of deaths, it would have to have been at least at least one rocket barrage. There are mutual accusations about what happened, but we would have to see what the real effects are on the ground.

Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza on October 18, 2023, following Tuesday’s explosion. (EFE/EPA/MOHAMMED SABLE). (MOHAMMED SABER/)

—If it were an Israeli missile, as the Palestinians accuse, would there necessarily be a large crater at the impact site?

A commonly used guided missile Israel To carry out its surgical attacks, it causes deep craters when it hits its target. Hamas and Islamic Jihad They use highly artisanal or old rockets, which do not have the firepower of a guided missile like the one used by Israel.

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—Is there a possibility that this was a false flag action, a provoked attack to target Israel, or was it simply a mistake?

In all types of conflicts there are always false flag operations, which is why it is necessary to be very careful in the first hours when an event occurs so as not to advance positions. There is also the concept of friendly fire, which gives precisely this discretionary margin to errors or errors that may occur mainly due to the launch of unguided rockets. With guided missiles the margin for error is smaller. There is always a bigger margin when it comes to these ex-Soviet, Chinese, etc. unguided rockets, which are ground-to-ground and generally fired in salvo mode.

According to Palestinian authorities in Gaza, hundreds of people were killed in an airstrike on a Gaza hospital on 17 October. (EFE/EPA/MOHAMMED SABLE). (MOHAMMED SABER/)

— Israel ordered the evacuation of at least one hospital in Gaza, something that was interpreted by the Palestinians as a bombing threat. In the context of a war, how can this order be interpreted?

For a long time there has been talk about fog of war, which is what prevents you from seeing what is behind things, fog of war due to rifle shots that produce a lot of smoke. Today this is called fake news, disinformation, psychological operations and propaganda, they are called multi-domain wars. What happened to the hospital could be a coincidence with what you mention in the question, and which supports the Palestinian version of the Israeli attack.

— The United States sided with Israel, do you think they deal with different information than what Israel presented as proof that it was Islamic Jihad or do you trust the Israeli version entirely?

It’s not that the United States has completely sided with Israel. If we read between the lines of Joe Biden’s statement, it says that everything indicates that it is coming from the other side. He was also not categorical, but he is inclined to believe in Israel. The added value of his statement is that he claims to have received information from the United States Department of Defense, which is more important to me. It is also not 100% conclusive, which is why I believe that Biden is well advised, as we must always be cautious, we must not be so emphatic on these types of issues.

Andrés Gómez de la Torre.

— Is what happened at the hospital a prelude to what could happen in an urban war if Israel began its ground offensive in Gaza?

What happened at the hospital could be a prelude to something, whether it was a false flag operation or a deliberate provocation to accelerate something from the Palestinians’ point of view. It lends itself to many readings. But the truth is that, personally, I think the worst case scenario for Israel is to enter into an urban war, because this will have very complicated military and strategic consequences. According to the experiences that the United States has had in Mogadishu and Fallujahwhich are two emblematic operations of the Urban warfarewhich Israel studied a lot, the operation will have a series of consequences on the ground and also international implications. It can become a war of attrition. Therefore, I believe that Israel must consider very carefully what steps to take in the coming hours. It must also coordinate with the United States the steps to follow. In an urban war in places like the Gaza Strip, it is very difficult to sustain the concepts of surgical strikes and avoid collateral damage, due to the geography of the area.

— Could Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah, respond militarily for what happened at the hospital, or will these threats go beyond speeches?

A military response from Iran and Hezbollah will largely depend on the scope of Israel’s continued campaign. If we opt for a massive attack and an occupying army through urban warfare, they will be able to respond militarily. But, eventually, they will refrain if Israel listens to the NATO Secretary General’s call that the response must be proportionate, that is, launching retaliatory strikes from the air using combat planes or drones. . And what Biden said is also important, that Israel must be very cautious when it comes to taking action.

Source: Elcomercio