Nicaragua Elections 2021: What future awaits Nicaragua after the victory of dictator Ortega?

“The option to migrate is number one. Staying is the fourth or fifth”. The journalist Nicaraguan of the newspaper “La Prensa” that answers us prefers not to reveal his name: this Sunday 7 Daniel Ortega he will seize power with a fourth consecutive term and the reprisals against the dissidents will continue to be a daily bread.

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Because the cards have been on the table for a long time. “We already know who will win the elections: Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo. As opponents have reiterated, these are not elections but a sham”.

It is true that there are parties that claim to aspire to the presidential seat, but it is a “pantomime”. This is how the journalist qualifies the situation Maynor salazar, who recalls that the regime was in charge of arresting “seven presidential hopefuls“, Annul uncomfortable political parties, as well as”businessmen, farmers, students and journalists”.

The situation is such that there were no campaign closings. “Everything was atypical, nothing like in other countries where there are real elections”, Says Salazar.

“Nothing compared to 2016, when even Ortega himself traveled to the provinces, when he left the ‘Búnker del Carmen’. What has come after are increasingly worn processes that end in this electoral farce”.

Because in Nicaragua no one wonders who will win this election Sunday November 7 -Salazar notes that the official media anticipate that Ortega will win with 80% of the votes. The most important question is what will happen to the country once the dictator reasserts his power.

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THE CRITICISMS AND THE OPPOSITE VOICES?

There is not the slightest probability that Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo will leave power. Given the overwhelming amount of information from the Central American country, it should be assumed from now on that Ortega will continue to dominate in Nicaragua.

With that in mind, it is worth asking: what will happen to the opposition?

Image of Managua, Nicaragua, on May 30, 2018, one of the many marches against the Ortega regime that took place that year in which fierce repression was unleashed. EFE (Jorge Torres /)

Salazar explains that you have to be very careful when trying to identify her. According to him, the opposition that exists in the country is, in reality, collaborationist, the exact opposite of that which was agglutinated in the Blue and White National Unity o la Citizen Alliance, for instance.

Ortega was in charge of “behead her”At the point of sending them to jail. “From the persecution, part of it went into exile, from where they continue to demand sanctions or actions”.

“For example, this week a group of national and international organizations requested the creation of an investigation mechanism not only of the massacre and repression of 2018, but also of the institutions that were key for Ortega to rise to power.”.

In this regard, the journalist from “The Press”He adds that the diaspora of dissidents, the one that makes marches in Costa Rica, USA O Spain, “is trying to unify”. “The thirst for democracy and freedom in all senses, for mobilization, for expression, is very great”.

But, internally, the possibilities of a march like the one of 2018 -whose repression left more than 300 dead and 150 incarcerated accused of “criminals and coup plotters”- are practically nil. Salazar notes that Ortega has ordered a de facto police state of siege, so anyone who tries to make a protest is going to be arrested.

“Hopefully they’ll charge you with a crime or they’ll just jail you for three weeks and then release you”.

“In any case, I would say that the opposition is going to be diminished by persecution and repression.”.

The tandem in power: the spouses Rosario Murillo and Daniel Ortega, the de facto leaders of Nicaragua. AP (Alfredo Zuniga /)

NO MONEY AND NO HELP

A Nicaragua uncertainty runs through it, but of all the edges, perhaps the economic one is the most serious. This Wednesday, United States Congress approved the project of Reborn Law (Strengthening of Nicaragua’s Adherence to the Conditions for Electoral Reform).

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The author of the legislation, the Democrat Bob Menendez, stated:

“We are not going to sit idly by while his regime consolidates a third dictatorship in Latin America”.

Only the signature of the presidente Joe Biden for sanctions to be established “tougher”To the Ortega government.

“And the revision of the Free Trade Agreement between the US and Central America (Cafta) is also pending.”, Adds the journalist from“ La Prensa ”.

“The economy of Nicaragua is in decline. It will be very difficult to live. We are not a country like Venezuela, which has oil. We are a poor country. It gives a lot to think about this. Maybe after the elections I will no longer have a job”.

On the matter, Salazar adds: “And we do not know if, by ignoring Ortega as a legitimate president, the European Union is going to give up having trade agreements. But we will only know that in the first semester of next year”.

While the international community may understand economic sanctions as an ethical measure, it is a double-edged sword.

“With all this one starts to think how hard it is for people who need work. This can lead to more people asking for money on the streets or other social problems, such as crime or health, accelerating.”Adds Salazar.

“Ortega said in a public appearance that, after the elections, he was going to take a step for dialogue. It remains to be seen if big capital, if the five big businessmen of NicaraguaThey are going to want to sit down and negotiate. Morally, the burden is very heavy for those who admit that they are going to sit down and talk with Ortega”.

Walter Espinoza is a presidential candidate against Ortega. He is a good example of what is denounced in the country: the supposed opposition is on the dictator’s side. REUTERS (STRINGER /)

A country without citizens

The exodus of Nicaraguans is a reality. Reuters has written that, between 2017 and 2020, remittances grew “a 33%”, “to $ 1.1851 billion“, Representing near the”15% of the country’s GDP”, “one of the highest percentages in Latin America”.

Salazar says that he recently spoke with several people to find out what their plans were for the future if the country continued on the same path. The answers were that they were going to try to find jobs in other latitudes, perhaps scholarships.

Others said they were concerned about their health (“there is no vaccination plan against the coronavirus”) And that, although they did not plan to leave the country, they did plan to travel elsewhere to get vaccinated.

Health travel, however, is also at risk.

The journalist from “La Prensa” recalls the “Long queues that recently formed on the border with Honduras, where Nicaraguans wanted to go to get vaccines approved by the WHO”.

“But the police denied them the exit legally without them being politicians, journalists, students or merchants. What happened? They had to go through blind spots risking their lives”.

“There is no stable future in Nicaragua. People will choose to sacrifice what they have for their family, to go to another country to make money and, perhaps in the distant future when things change, when there is a change of government, they can finally return to the country. that they left with so much sadness”.

Salazar shares the idea. “The Nicaraguan does not want to continue living in a country that is heading for failure. The youngest are the most interested in leaving and not wasting, as they say, their youth for a dictatorship that offers no opportunities to get ahead”.

And, of course, not to mention those who will pay to be part of opposition media such as “La Prensa”, which has suffered raids, robberies and is being investigated by the regime. With that on her back, the journalist has thought about leaving the country.

“I won’t do it right after November 7. I’m going to wait a year to see what direction the country takes, to see if everything falls or stabilizes, although I doubt the latter will happen.”.

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