Argentina Elections 2021: What is at stake for Alberto Fernández in the November 14 elections?

The government of Alberto Fernandez its predominance in Parliament is at stake in the legislative elections next Sunday, an election that will be held in a difficult economic context for Argentina and with the antecedent of the hard defeat of the ruling party in the primaries of last September.

Officialism and opposition concentrate their last efforts in the week that begins this Sunday, which will be marked by the campaign closings, the final opportunity to try to capture the vote of the 34.3 million Argentines called to the polls.

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In the elections next Sunday, 127 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate will be renewed.

The lists of candidates in competition were defined on September 12, in primary elections with a low level of participation due to the pandemic and despite the fact that voting is mandatory in Argentina.

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That election day ended with a severe setback for the ruler Front of All, which obtained a third of the total votes, losing significant ground with respect to the result that in the general elections of October 2019 led Alberto Fernández to the Casa Rosada.

In return, Juntos por el Cambio, the main opposition front, won just over 40% of the votes, improving its electoral performance.

POLLS VATICINAN TRIUMPH OPPOSITOR

If the result of the primaries is repeated, the ruling party would lose its own quorum in the Senate and could reduce its bench of Deputies to practically remain in numerical equality or, even below, the bloc of Together for Change, an alliance that in September achieved resounding triumphs in the country’s largest electoral districts: the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza and the capital of the country.

The most recent polls agree that Together for Change It will take an advantage close to ten points to the ruling party, replicating and even improving a little the result of the primaries.

“Everything indicates that the Government is going to suffer a defeat greater than that of the primaries. That marks the main polls. It could improve some points in the province of Buenos Aires, but Together for Change would win again in this district and in the interior it would expand the advantage, especially in the central area of ​​the country “analyst Patricio Giusto, from the Political Diagnostic consultancy, told Efe.

For the expert, the “historic mid-term defeat” to which the Government is heading could “accelerate internal bidding”, “with a possible” total detachment “of the wing that responds to the Argentine vice president, Cristina Fernández.

THE ECONOMY, UNDER REVIEW

A very complex economic scenario weighs on the voters’ decision.

Although the Argentine economy is currently showing signs of recovery after the recession that began in 2018 and the pandemic hit that plunged activity by 9.9% in 2020, the consequences of the crisis are evident and have their most dire side in a poverty index 40.6% and serious employment problems.

High inflation does not give truce -52.5% year-on-year in September and with a tendency to accelerate-, eats up income and discourages investment in a country without access to external financing, exchange restrictions, high fiscal deficit and a multimillion-dollar debt with the International Monetary Fund that Argentina has not yet managed to refinance.

This scenario already cost the Government a defeat in the primaries, or at least that is how the ruling party understood it, which after the September election openly aired its internal debates on economic policy.

The dispute between the sector related to Alberto Fernández and the one that responds to the vice president resulted in a remodeling of the Government Cabinet and the decision of the Executive to “inject” money into the pockets of Argentines through state aid and stimuli to various sectors financed by a greater monetary issue to which not a few economists attribute the new acceleration in prices.

According to analyst Jorge Daniel Giacobbe, director of the consulting firm Giacobbe & Asociados, “the elections create a space of social catharsis that allows the Argentine electorate to slap the government to express their displeasure.”

According to a survey by this consultancy, only 9.2% of Argentines believe that inflation will fall in 2022 and 11.2% that poverty will decrease.

“But most see everything wrong and, therefore, will make the lesson to thunder,” Giacobbe considered.

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Deshawn