Exchange rate: What internal and external factors may affect you in the coming weeks?

The exchange rate ended the day yesterday Tuesday at a stable level. During the session, a minimum fall of 0.03% was observed, which brought the greenback to S / 3.9480, a figure similar to the one reached on Monday, of S / 3.9499.

At the beginning of the day, the dollar it started trading down, but then resumed an upward trend. To attenuate volatility, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) placed exchange and interest rate swaps for a total of S / 480 million in five auctions.

The US currency has registered consecutive falls, in part, due to the local situation.

“The lower perceived political tensions with the new Cabinet have contributed to the appreciation of the currency”said Luis Eduardo Falen, head of Macroeconomics at Intéligo SAB.

Alberto Arispe, general manager of Kallpa SAB, agreed, who also remarked that the results recorded respond to the confirmation of the permanence of the president of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), Julio Velarde, and the appointment of the new directors of the entity. He also indicated that on an international scale the rise in the copper price.

Perspectives

In Arispe’s opinion, the government’s decisions will be key to assessing the trajectory of the US currency in the coming weeks. “You have to give investors confidence that the country is going up”, he referred.

Jorge Luis Ojeda, professor of Finance at the Peruvian University of Applied Sciences (UPC) made emphasis on the same point. The specialist considered key the vote of confidence that could be granted to the cabinet chaired by Mirtha Vásquez. “[Esto] begins to build trust between people. The economy is reactivated and the exchange rate should go down slowly. It is no longer going to drop abruptly “, he opined.

Meanwhile, Miguel Garre, vice president of Fixed Income at Credicorp Capital Bolsa, stressed that at the local level, it will be essential to observe the political signals that may be provided in the coming months.

“I see more downward pressure in the medium term due to the level of copper, the political scene and the issue of the constituent assembly that is being relegated “, I observe.

At the international level, he commented that it is now necessary to have on the radar the global appreciation of the dollar and the movement of ‘commodities’.

The data

Factor copper: on the London Metal Exchange, the copper it climbed 15% in less than two weeks due to falling inventories and inflation concerns.