To probe the expectations of the electorate of the right and the center in the run-up to the 2022 presidential election, and to know their assessment of the five main potential candidates, The Republicans launched a vast survey on Monday.
In total “15,000 people will be questioned” during this poll carried out by Ifop, the party said. However, this survey is not intended to be a decision-making instrument but “to aid in decision-making”, specified political scientist Pascal Perrineau, responsible for overseeing the process.
Three question categories
Respondents must meet one of these three criteria: either to be a “sympathizer” of the right and the center (LR, UDI, Les Centristes …), or to have voted for one of the candidates of these parties during the election. ‘a previous election, either to position itself on the right or in the center-right on an axis-left-right, specified Frédéric Dabi, director general of Ifop.
The questions asked will be divided into three categories, with on the one hand a test bench of the five contenders for the Elysée: Valérie Pécresse, Michel Barnier, Eric Ciotti and Philippe Juvin who accept the principle of a possible primary, as well as Xavier Bertrand, who refuses to comply with such a process. Entrepreneur Denis Payre, who announced his surprise candidacy on Sunday evening, will not be tested.
A probable primary
In addition to notoriety, respondents will have to answer questions such as “Who is most likely to beat Emmanuel Macron?” or “Who has the most ability to bring together?” Second, respondents will have to select 4 themes that they believe to be priorities for 2022, from among 20 proposals (health crisis, immigration, fight against terrorism, education, etc.).
The third set of questions will focus on the tie-breaker, whether or not respondents are in favor of a primary and what type.The collection should last about two weeks and the result will be known before the LR congress on September 25, where the militants will decide whether or not to start a primary (it is necessary for that to modify the statutes of the party). LR management is reluctant to the idea of a primary, which it believes is synonymous with divisions, but in the absence of a natural candidate it will have to resolve it without a doubt.
