Lula vs. Bolsonaro: The surprising result of the last poll 11 days after the second round in Brazil

The advantage of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over President Jair Bolsonaro was reduced to 4 percentage points in a poll of voting intentions released this Wednesday, 11 days before the elections in Brazil.

According to the Institute Datafolhaconsidered the main demographic firm in the country, if the elections were held this Wednesday, the former union leader would obtain 49% of the votes and the far-right leader 45%.

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Likewise, 4% of the voters would vote blank or null and only 1% are undecided, the survey pointed out.

Compared to last week’s survey, conducted on October 14, Lula remained with 49% of voting intentions, Bolsonaro it went from 44% to 45% and blank and invalid votes were reduced from 5% to 4%.

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The difference between the two candidates is the smallest of all the polls conducted by Datafolha throughout the campaign and due to the margin of error, it presents a technical tie.

The new poll listened to 2,912 voters in 181 cities between Monday and Wednesday, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points and was conducted after the first television debate ahead of the second round held last Sunday.

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In accordance with Datafolhaif only valid votes are taken into account, excluding null and blank ones, as the electoral authority does when counting, Lula can be elected president with 52% of the vote compared to 48% for Bolsonaro.

On Monday, the Ipec Institute, another of the main demographic centers in the country, released a survey in which the progressive leader appears with 50% of voting intentions, 7 points above the current head of state (43%).

In the first round of the presidential elections, held on October 2, Lula was the most voted, with 48.4% of the votes, and Bolsonaro seconded him with 43.2%.

As none of the candidates obtained more than half of the valid votes, the two most voted will contest the second round on Sunday, October 30.

The polling firms have been questioned in Brazil for not having detected the strength that the current president had in the first round.

Source: Elcomercio

Ronald Payne

I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.