Elections in Senegal: what are the scenarios after the decision of the Constitutional Court?

The country is waiting. Senegal depends on President Macky Sall’s reaction to the Constitutional Court’s decision. On Thursday, the department declared unconstitutional the law adopted on February 5 by the National Assembly on postponing the presidential elections to December 15. A presidential decree that changed the election calendar just three weeks before the Feb. 25 vote was also rescinded.

According to the Constitutional Council, the decision to postpone the elections has no legal basis, since the president does not have the power to postpone or cancel the vote. With this decision, the Sages also confirm the principle of the “intangibility” of the presidential mandate, that is, five years. However, the mandate of Macky Sall, who has promised not to run again, officially expires on April 2.

So what will happen between now and then, and even after? This Friday morning, Senegal woke up in complete confusion, still stunned by a historic decision that no one expected. “Everyone was taken by surprise by the Constitutional Council, which we thought was on the payroll of the president,” said El-Haj Suleiman Gassama, a researcher associated with Iris. In this fog, several scenarios are now emerging.

For the elections in March?

The President can make this decision first. “Finally, this is a semblance of an end to the crisis with the potential organization of elections before Macky Sall leaves. This is a fragile return to the constitutional order and the original schedule,” the researcher analyzes. “The Constitutional Court says the law: the ball remains in Macky Sall’s court, it is up to him to call and organize the next elections,” he continues.

However, the original date of February 25 appears to be compromised. The Constitutional Council actually stated “the impossibility of organizing presidential elections on the originally planned date,” given the delay in the process, while simultaneously inviting “the competent authorities to hold them as soon as possible.” Michelle Ghaly, a political scientist and specialist on sub-Saharan Africa, is looking forward to “the month of March.”

For its part, the international community is holding its breath. The European Union called on Friday for “all parties” to respect the decision of the Constitutional Council and to “organize elections as soon as possible.”

Working progress…

Another hypothesis: “Mackie Sall is trying to find some kind of ploy to get his candidate [Amadou Ba, Premier ministre sénégalais et dauphin du président] not to lose the presidential elections, and therefore we enter into a showdown,” analyzes Michel Ghaly, who considers this scenario unlikely, as does El-Hajj Suleiman Gassama. “We must be wary of any prophecies, but I find it very difficult to see in this context, between the loss of his credit, international pressure and street pressure, how he could come to blows with the Constitutional Council. »

It must be said that the context was explosive even before Thursday’s decision. Since President Sall’s announcement to postpone the presidential election, which he justified on grounds of conflict over the electoral process and fears that the vote would spark further violence, the country has plunged into a serious political crisis. The opposition and civil society condemned the “institutional coup d’etat.” Three students were killed in demonstrations against the government and dozens were arrested.

…or dialogue?

The first gestures of appeasement were made, as well as new calls for demonstrations this Friday and Saturday. Since Thursday, 134 imprisoned opposition and civil society figures were released on Thursday and another 90 were due to be released throughout the day on Friday, according to the Justice Ministry. Suleiman Jim, a member of the Political Prisoners’ Families Collective, told AFP that “156 detainees were released” on Thursday, “and a total of 500 should be released soon.”

A sign of opening dialogue with the opposition? According to Jeune Afrique and RFI, negotiations between the government and the camp of Ousmane Sonko, a jailed opponent leading the Pastef (African Patriots of Senegal for Labour, Ethics and Fraternity) party, dissolved in July 2023, are even ongoing. “The negotiations were carried out on behalf of the mediators, which both sides apparently deny,” points out El-Haj Suleiman Gassama, recalling the lack of material evidence of these exchanges. “With the goal of peaceful elections in a month, these negotiations could lead to a political agreement, the terms of which are yet to be determined,” political scientist Michel Ghaly nevertheless believes.