Taiwan: Five minutes to understand China’s ‘troubling’ military operations

The Taiwan Strait shook again. On Thursday morning, the People’s Republic of China launched new military operations in the area to inflict what it called “severe punishment” on the Taiwanese government. In response, Taiwan “strongly condemned these exercises” and the island’s president affirmed that he “will defend the values ​​of freedom and democracy.”

After months of calm, it was the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te this Monday that reignited the fire in the region. The Beijing regime interpreted this speech as a declaration of independence.

“All separatist forces advocating Taiwan independence will end in blood,” said Wang Wenbin, a Chinese diplomatic spokesman. Although Taiwan has its own government, flag and even its own judiciary, China considers it a breakaway province and wants to “reunify” the national territory.

A “small evolution” of Taiwanese discourse

“There has been a slight evolution in official Taiwanese discourse,” admits Marc Julien, director of the Asia Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “Speaking of Taiwan on the one hand and China on the other, Lai Ching-te spoke more decisively than her predecessor. Tsai Ing-wen (former president) took a more nuanced position, which was to remain unclear about the status of the two political entities on both sides of the Strait,” explains the researcher.

“But this is in no way a provocation or a turn towards independence by the Taiwanese president,” he warns.

In fact, China’s reaction has more to do with symbolism than the content of the Taiwanese president’s remarks. “It is traditional for China to discredit the legitimacy of the Taiwanese president,” says Jean Francois di Meglio, president of the Asia Center think tank. “These military exercises are regularly held before or after elections,” says Marc Julien.

“Large” maneuvers

As part of these maneuvers, which began at 7:45 a.m. local time, military aircraft and ships were deployed “into the Taiwan Strait, north, south and east of the island of Taiwan, as well as areas located around the Taiwan islands.” Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin,” the Chinese army said in a statement.

“Qinmen and Matsu, located on the coast of mainland China, have remained aloof from such military exercises by Beijing in recent years,” the IFRI researcher emphasizes.

According to Marc Julien, the operation is “large-scale” and relatively “alarming.” “The last time such an important exercise was in August 2022, after Nancy Pelosi’s visit,” he compares. Angered by the arrival of the Democratic President of the US House of Representatives, the regime began three days of military exercises.

Towards an armed conflict between China and Taiwan?

It remains to be seen whether this Chinese pressure should lead to fears of an invasion of Taiwan. “The risk is small, but the consequences will be immeasurable,” sums up Marc Julien.

Economically, such an armed conflict would have serious consequences for both parties concerned, especially China, which operates primarily through exports. But also for “Japan, Korea and all powers that need to use the Taiwan Strait,” argues Jean-François di Meglio.

Outside the Pacific, Taiwan is the world’s leading manufacturer of high-performance semiconductor chips. Economic shutdowns “will be a problem across many international industries, from automobiles to artificial intelligence,” he warns.

Marc Julien is also concerned about the risk of international conflict due to “intervention by the US, historical ally Taiwan or even Korea, Japan or Australia”, which have geostrategic interests in the region.

For now, the Chinese government has announced the end of military operations this Friday.